Concepts
The sum of the probabilities for all experimental outcomes in a sample space must equal __________.
1, or 100%, or 1.0
The _____ of event A is defined to be the event consisting of all sample points that are not in A.
complement
This type of probability measures the likelihood of an event given that another event has already occurred.
conditional probability
This is any process with uncertain results.
experiment
Between an event with P = 0.6 and an event with P = 1/2, this one is more likely to happen.
P = 0.6
Which kind of probability is based on observed data?
Classical, Relative Frequency, or Subjective?
Relative Frequency
The __________ of A and B is the event containing all sample points belonging to A or B or both.
union
This branching diagram is often used to organize probabilities in multi-stage problems, with conditional probabilities written along the branches.
tree diagram
This term describes events where the occurrence of one changes the probability of the other.
dependent
This type of probability is based on personal judgment or belief rather than on data or calculation.
subjective probability
The probability assigned to each experimental outcome must be between _____ and _____.
0 and 1
What is the key word for determining whether you are looking for the intersection of event?
"and"
The intersection of A and B is the event containing the sample points belonging to both A AND B.
In the statement "Of the students who drove to school today, 25% arrived late," which event is A in P(A | B)?
arrived late
In Bayes' Theorem, this term describes your belief about an event before you see any new evidence.
prior
If sample space A has 4 possible outcomes, and sample space B has 3 possible outcomes, how many combinations are possible?
12
If the probability of event A is not changed by the existence of event B, we would say that events A and B are __________.
independent
Finish the equation for a complement.
P(Not A) = __________
1 − P(A)
When you calculate P(A | B), you divide the intersection of A and B by the probability of this event.
B
This is the updated probability you get after applying Bayes' Theorem to new evidence.
posterior
If A and B are independent, then the probability that A and B will occur is:
P(A ∩ B) = __________
P(A) x P(B)
If two events cannot both occur, then they are __________.
mutually exclusive
Complete this equation:
__________ = P(A) + P(B) − P(A ∩ B)
P(A ∪ B)
In the question "If the kicker made the field goal, what is the probability it was raining?" event is B in P(A | B).?
making the field goal
A student asked, "What is P(Class Cancelled | Rain)."
A question based on Bayes' Theorem would ask: __________
What is P(Rain | Class Cancelled)
In a joint probability table, this type of probability is found at the ends of the rows and columns.
marginal totals