Risky Business
Prospect theory explains otherwise puzzling behavior in terms of humans feeling this X more keenly than this Y.
What are losses (X) and gains (Y)?
Organizational culture shapes and internalizes these regular routines and habits that can produce unreflective thinking.
What are SOPs (standard operating procedures)?
The is the term for the organization of beliefs related to the political arena.
What is operational code?
In thinking about leadership style, this is the term for an individual who feels unbound by treaty commitments or public opinion in considering FP options.
What is constraint challenger?
Along with conceptual complexity, this cognitive bias that draws from experience shapes the analogies leaders choose.
What is the availability bias?
Frames shape how individuals assess their losses or gains based on this.
What is a reference point?
Kimberly Marten points to the lingering power of this organization in explaining its country's foreign policy.
What is the KGB?
Janice Gross Stein points Soviet Premier Gorbachev being an "uncommitted thinker" and "motivated learner" to explain a change in his schema on this issue.
What is the Soviet security problem (not just New Thinking)?
Conceptual complexity, measured by at-a-distance analysis of spontaneous remarks, is linked to leaders' sophisticated use of these in FPDM.
What are analogies?
This is the full name of the current president of Turkey (pronunciation counts).
What is Recep Tayyip Erdoğan?
This phenomenon, produced upon acquiring something, explain why humans would charge much more to part with something than they would pay to purchase it.
What is the endowment effect?
Organizational culture is pointed to in explaining the objections of armed service officers to governmental attempts to politicize the justice system through this 2006 act.
What is the Military Commissions Act?
This is the term for a leader who, for example, thinks a communist authoritarian regime is to blame for a state's threatening actions.
What is internally focused?
This is the term for the type of analysis illustrated by the following hypothesis: Had Hitler not been leader of Germany, WWII would not have happened.
What is counterfactual analysis?
This is the armed group whose US support in the fight against ISIS Turkey objected to on the grounds it is a terrorist organization.
What is the People's Protection Units/YPG (Syrian Kurdish)?
Barbara Farnham uses prospect theory explains President Roosevelt's otherwise puzzling decision to intervene in the Munich crisis by pointing to by this shift.
What is a frame shift into Chamberlain's/Europe's Ingroup (generated by emotions)
In describing the homogeneity of personnel in the CIA that may have led to suboptimal intelligence analysis around 9/11, this catchy phrase is often used.
What is Yale Pale Male?
Thinking in binary categories, this is the two-word term for those who believe nuclear deterrence is enhanced by horizontal proliferation.
What is nuclear optimist?
This is an example of how Margaret Thatcher's leadership style shaped the UK's actions in the Falklands/Malvinas War.
What are...constrained by international law, driven by failures at home, massive respect for military...
This is the name of the initiative that Erdoğan, to many observers' surprise, supported in attempts to resolve the conflict in Cyprus.
What is the Annan Plan?
These is one factor prospect theory points to in explaining President Carter's risky decision to authorize a hostage rescue operation.
What are domain of losses factors (could be loss of security for US citizens, loss of US reputation, dwindling numbers in polls)?
These are two of the three general problems Amy Zegart highlights in explaining the FBI's intelligence failure around 9/11.
What are structural deficiencies, personal incentives, cultural pathologies
These are two of three mechanisms Jonathan Renshon points to in explaining how beliefs can change.
What are role change, learning, and exogenous shock?
What is the decision process (or relationship or consensus)?
This was the international event at which Erdoğan criticized Israeli President Shimon Peres for the deaths of Palestinians and then stormed off stage. (year, location, event title)
What is the 2009 Davos World Economic Forum?