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Los Lunas High School keeps a valuable championship ring in a locked display case outside the main office. On Friday morning at 8:00 a.m., staff discovered that the display case had been opened and the ring was missing.

Security footage showed that the ring was still in the case at 6:00 p.m. Thursday. Investigators believe it was taken sometime between 6:00 p.m. and 10:00 p.m. Thursday night.

There were no signs that the display case had been forced open. The case normally requires a small silver key kept in the main office.

Investigators identified Alex Martinez, a senior at the school, as a possible suspect. Alex had stayed after school Thursday for basketball practice. Alex told investigators that practice ended at 6:30 p.m. and that his mother picked him up immediately afterward. He said he never went near the main office that evening and went directly home.

The investigation is trying to determine whether Alex stole the championship ring.

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100

At 6:50 p.m., a teacher saw someone wearing a red Los Lunas hoodie leaving the main office area.

Relevant. Combined with the fact that Alex was wearing one, it slightly increases the probability that Alex was near the office.

100

Alex ate pizza for lunch Thursday.

Irrelevant. It does not help prove or disprove whether he stole the ring.

100

A silver key that opens the display case was found under the passenger seat of Alex's car.

Relevant. Possession of a key capable of opening the case strongly affects whether Alex could have accessed it.

100

That other student was carrying a backpack large enough to hold the ring.

Relevant, but weak. It slightly supports the possibility that someone else could have taken and concealed the ring.

200

Security video shows Alex walking toward the main office at 6:42 p.m. Thursday.

Relevant. It makes it more likely Alex was near the location during the possible time of the theft and contradicts his statement.

200

Alex has three dogs at home.

Irrelevant. This has no apparent connection to the missing ring.

200

Alex sent a friend a text Wednesday saying, “That championship ring would be worth a lot of money.”

Relevant. It tends to show knowledge of or interest in the ring's value.

200

Alex's car had less than a quarter tank of gas Thursday night.

Irrelevant. Nothing in the story makes his fuel level important.

200

Alex had $600 in cash in his backpack Friday morning.

Relevant, but context matters. Unexplained cash could potentially relate to the missing valuable ring, although by itself it proves very little.

300

Alex received an A in English last semester.

Irrelevant. His English grade does not make it more or less likely that he stole the ring.

300

Earlier that week, Alex asked a secretary, “Where do you keep the key to the championship display case?”

Relevant. It could show knowledge or interest concerning access to the case.

300

Alex's phone connected to the school's Wi-Fi at 6:47 p.m. Thursday.

Relevant. It tends to contradict his claim that he left at 6:30 and was already on his way home.

300

At 6:35 p.m., Alex searched on his phone, “how much are championship rings worth?”

Relevant. The timing and subject of the search make it more likely that he had an interest in the ring's value.

300

Alex's father confirms that he gave Alex the $600 Wednesday to buy a used laptop.

Relevant. It provides an innocent explanation for evidence that might otherwise appear suspicious.

400

Alex's mother says she actually picked him up at 7:15 p.m., not 6:30 p.m.

Relevant. It gives Alex additional opportunity and contradicts his account.

400

Alex's fingerprint was found on the outside glass of the display case.

Relevant — but weak. It makes his contact with the display somewhat more probable, although students regularly pass the case and there may be an innocent explanation.

400

Alex's phone connected to his home Wi-Fi at 7:25 p.m. Thursday.

Relevant. It helps establish when he was home and therefore helps evaluate his timeline.

400

Alex's younger brother plays soccer at another school.

Irrelevant. It has no apparent connection to the theft.

400

Police searched Alex's bedroom and did not find the championship ring.

Relevant, but weak. The absence of the ring can make it somewhat less likely he possessed it, although he could have hidden, sold, or disposed of it.

500

Alex was wearing a red Los Lunas hoodie at basketball practice that day.

Irrelevant, based on the facts currently known. Nothing connects a red hoodie to the theft.

500

Alex's fingerprint was found on the inside of the display case.

Relevant — and much stronger. It tends to show Alex had contact with an area that normally would not be accessible.

500

Alex has attended Los Lunas High School for four years.

Irrelevant, by itself. Simply attending the school does not meaningfully prove he stole the ring.

500

A camera shows another student entering the main office area at 6:55 p.m.

Relevant. Evidence suggesting another person had opportunity can make it less likely that Alex was responsible.

500

Alex posted a picture on Instagram Thursday morning showing his new haircut.

Irrelevant. His haircut does not affect the probability that he stole the ring.

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