Civil War
In this type of civil war, at least one outside state sends troops.
What is internationalized civil war?
Terrorism is the use or threat of violence by ____ against ____ for political purposes.
Who are non-state actors and noncombatants?
This model sees foreign policy as the result of internal bargaining and power struggles, where “where you stand depends on where you sit.”
What is Bureaucratic Politics Model?
This term describes when group members prioritize harmony and consensus over critical evaluation, often leading to flawed decisions.
What is Groupthink?
This term refers to the public's tendency to increase support for their government or leaders during periods of crisis, such as war.
What is the rally effect?
The civil war literature identifies ___ and ___ as the primary motives underlying civil conflict.
What is greed and grievance?
From a rationalist perspective, what type of actor uses terrorism, and why?
Weak, nonstate actors use terrorism because it's difficult for them to make credible threats. Terrorism acts a costly signal that allows actors to demonstrate their resolve and commitment.
True or False: Being perceived as irrational can sometimes strengthen a leader’s bargaining position in international politics.
True. Unpredictability can make threats appear more credible (“crazy like a fox”). But can also make commitments more uncredible - so it is a double-edged sword.
Name the three main causes of Groupthink discussed in class.
What are High group cohesiveness, structural features (insularity, partial leadership, homogeneity), and stressful contexts (high stakes or past failures).
This term refers to the negative consequences a leader will face for failing to follow through on a threat.
What are audience costs?
"Hit-and-run" attacks by non-state actors against military or government targets for some political purpose.
What is insurgency?
According to Kydd and Walter (2006), ___ and ___ are strategies of terrorism that seek to influence the beliefs of the target state/enemy.
What is attrition and spoiling?
Simon (1955) argues leaders rarely do this -- searching exhaustively for the single best option. Instead, bounded rationality makes them settle for this -- choosing an option that simply clears an acceptability threshold.
What is Maximizing and Satisficing?
When group deliberation pushes members toward more extreme positions; examples include escalation of wars, harsher sanctions, or tougher bargaining in peace talks.
What is the Group Extremity Shift?
Explain the danger of rally effects for conflict.
Rally effects create a diversionary incentive for leaders, may make it domestically costly for leaders to pursue conciliatory strategies.
Name a state-level feature that can make civil war more likely.
Institutions/regime type; state wealth/govt capacity; population features; ethnic power relations
Terrorism is committed for political purposes. Explain how/why political motives can be difficult to define in the context of terrorism and provide an example.
What counts as political? Ex: Cartels?
How specific does the claim/goal need to be? Ex: Racism/identity-driven violence vs specific policy goal
Name two of the four contextual factors in which psychological explanations of leader behavior become most useful.
What are contested representations of the problem, non-routine situations, high stakes, and significant freedom of choice for the decision-maker?
What does the Selective Attention Thesis predict about differences between leaders and intelligence communities?
Leaders and intelligence agencies attend to different signals based on prior beliefs, vivid experiences, and organizational roles, shaping how adversaries’ intentions are interpreted.
True or false: Gartner and Segura (1998) find that wartime public opinion is highly sensitive to cumulative casualties, but not sensitive to marginal casualties.
False
According to Denny and Walter (2014), what is one reason that ethnic groups are more likely to initiate a civil war than other groups?
More grievances against the state; Easier time organizing support and mobilizing a movement; More likely to face difficult-to-resolve bargaining problems
Terrorism causes far fewer deaths than common diseases or car crashes, but it is a top concern among the American public. Give two possible reasons for this.
Ex: availability bias; media coverage; appropriate reaction has led to effective prevention
Name two ways cognitive biases distort leaders’ wartime decision-making, and illustrate each with one historical example.
What are cognitive consistency or avoidance of value tradeoffs (e.g., leaders insisting wars will be quick, like Rumsfeld on Iraq or Reagan on Vietnam) and sensitivity to sunk costs (e.g., continued escalation in Vietnam to justify earlier losses)? (Top-down processing is also an acceptable answer here)
How does the Selective Attention Thesis differ from rationalist approaches like the Behavior and Capabilities Theses in explaining how leaders interpret adversaries’ signals?
The Selective Attention Thesis says leaders filter signals through beliefs and organizational roles, while rationalist approaches expect responses to costly signals or shifts in military capabilities.
Perceived terror threats can induce fear and anger. Explain how these emotions can lead to distinct preferences regarding counter-terrorism strategies.
Fear -> seek to prevent/avoid -> prefer policies that minimize terrorism (i.e. preventive strategy)
Anger -> seek to confront/approach -> prefer policies that punish terrorists (i.e. punitive strategy)