Affirming the consequent
If A, then B. B is true, therefore A....
A must be true.
Which entrepreneur is often used to justify risky dropout decisions?
Bill Gates or Steve Jobs.
If our new ad campaign works, profits will rise. Profits rose, so the campaign must have worked. Which bias is this?
Affirming the consequent bias.
What is the definition of affirming the consequent?
Bias that occurs when someone assumes the initial cause must be true, for the sole reason that an outcome has taken place.
What is survivorship bias?
Survivorship bias happens when we only focus on successful examples and ignore failures, which leads to distorted conclusions about what causes success.
In the manager example, what assumption is made when productivity increases?
That employees must be satisfied just because productivity went up.
Why is affirming the consequent considered illogical?
Because just because a result is true doesn’t mean the original condition caused it.
What mistake is made when someone studies only successful startups?
They assume the habits of successful startups caused success and ignore failed ones with the same habits.
What is logically wrong with the manager’s reasoning?
The manager confuses correlation with causation, higher productivity doesn’t necessarily mean employees are happy.
In medicine, how might affirming the consequent appear?
If someone has COVID, they have a fever, therefore, if someone has a fever, they must have COVID.
Why did the WWII engineers’ decision to reinforce bullet-hit areas on returning planes show flawed reasoning?
Because they were only studying the planes that survived, ignoring the ones that were shot down.
According to the “If Productivity Increased” case, what other explanations could there be for higher productivity?
Stricter supervision, new incentives, or automation rather than real job satisfaction.