Deductive Reasoning
What is the belief about negative wording?
People handle positive information better than negative information. They take longer and make more errors
What is the availability heuristic?
It estimates frequency or probability in terms of how easy it is to think of relevant examples
What are the two factors that influence the framing effect?
The background context of the choice and the way in which the question is worded
How do we reduce overconfidence? Explain it
Using the crystal-ball technique you imagine a completely accurate crystal ball that says that your hypothesis is wrong
What are the two types of deductive reasoning? Explain both
Conditional (also known as propositional) reasoning describes the relationship between conditions
Syllogism reasoning is 2 statements that we must assume to be true, plus a conclusion
What do studies find in the confidence interval?
Studies find that in general estimated confidence intervals tend to be too narrow and anchors may be to erroneous and adjustments too wide
What are one of the reasons for overconfidence
Often unaware our knowledge is based on uncertain assumptions from unreliable or inappropriate sources
Examples that confirm our hypothesis are readily available
Difficulty recalling other possible hypothesis, and decision making depends on memory
Describe the information learned on the anchoring and adjustment heuristic
What are some of the propositional caucus terminology? Describe 2 of them
Proposition: statement you are making the decision about
Affirm: concluding the statement is true/valid
Deny: confirm the statement is false/invalid
Antecedent: if statement, comes first
Consequent: consequence, comes second
What is the work of Tversky and Kahneman?
They proposed that a small number of heuristics guide human decision-making. But the same strategies that normally guide us toward the correct decision may sometimes lead us astray
What is hindsight bias? Why do we do it?
Hindsight bias is the knew-it-all-along effect. After an event happens, we say it was inevitable/obvious from the start. We do it because of anchoring and adjustment. Outcome inflates condense anchor, misremembering events consistent with current information.
Why does the planning fallacy occur?
Optimistic/ideal version of events
failure to consider problems
memory for similar tasks
overestimate future free time
anchoring and adjustment
how is the confirmation bias applied in medicine
People seek confirming evidence when self-diagnosing disorders. Both medical students and psychiatrists tend to select information consistent with their original diagnosis rather than investigate information that might be consistent with another diagnosis.
Describe the 3 factors that influence the representative heuristic
Sample size: we ignore the sample size when it does matter
Base rate: we ignore how often something occurs in a population
Conjunction rule: we often ignore that the probability of a "conjunction" of 2 events cannot be larger than the probability of either of the individual events
Describe the two decision making styles
Maximizers tend to examine as many options as possible
Satisfiers tend to settle for something that is satisfactory
What is the prospect theory? What are the two views of the prospect theory?
the prospect theory is the tendency to think of gains differently than losses. When dealing with possible gains, people tend to avoid risks. When dealing with possible losses, people tend to seek risks.
What is the dual process theory? Include the two types of processing
It is an approach to studying reasoning and decision-making that distinguishes between two types of cognitive processing. Type 1 processing is fast and automatic, requiring little conscious attention. Type 2 processing is slow and controlled, requiring focused attention
Explain the conjunction rule, then proceed to explain the conjunction fallacy. What do people use to judge instead of...
The conjunction rule is the probability of two events co-occurring cannot be larger than the probability of one of those events. The conjunction fallacy is when we judge the probability of conjoined events as greater than a consistent event's probability. People tend to judge using representativeness instead of statistical probability
Explain Schwartz and colleagues (2002) results
What is the current status of heuristics and decision making