Deductive
Reasoning
Reasoning
What is Deductive reasoning?
This type of reasoning starts with specific ideas that are believed to be true. Then, it checks if those ideas logically lead to a certain conclusion.
Define Belief bias effect
occurs in reasoning when people make judgments based on prior beliefs and general knowledge, rather than on the rules of logic. In general, people make errors when the logic of a reasoning problem conflicts with their background knowledge
What is decision making?
Assessing information and choosing among two or more alternatives. Compared to deductive reasoning, decision making is much more ambiguous.
Framing Effect:
The framing effect demonstrates that the outcome of your decision can be influenced by two factors: (1) the background context of the choice and (2) the way in which a question is worded
What is a heuristic, provide an example.
A general rule or problem-solving strategy that usually produces a correct solution; however, it can sometimes lead to cognitive errors.
"Rule of thumb" shortcut for decision-making
Imagine you're trying to decide which line to get in at the grocery store.
You choose the line with the fewest people, assuming it will move faster.
What is a conditional reasoning task?
A deductive reasoning task that describes the relationship between conditions. Conditional reasoning tasks are often presented in an “if . . . then . . .” format. Also called a propositional reasoning task.
Which king of processing is Belief Bias an example of ( top-down or bottom-up) and explain why.
Belief bias is an example of top-down processing.
Our prior expectations help us to organize our experiences and understand the world. For example, when we see a conclusion in a reasoning task that looks correct in the “real world,” we may not pay attention to the reasoning process that generated this conclusion.
How do you know when a sample is representative to the population?
If it is similar in important characteristics to the population from which it was selected. For instance, if a sample was selected by a random process, then that sample must look random in order for people to say that it looks representative
Define the prospective theory and its two general beliefs.
The prospect theory to refer to people’s tendencies to think that possible gains are different from possible losses.
1. When dealing with possible gains, people tend to avoid risks.
2. When dealing with possible losses, people tend to seek risks
What is a representative heuristic, provide an example.
Def: A general rule in decision making that people use when trying to decide which outcome would be more likely. People who use this heuristic make judgments in terms of the similarity between the sample and the population from which the sample was selected
Example: You meet someone who is quiet, loves reading, and wears glasses. You assume they must be a librarian, not a teacher. This is because they "match" the stereotype (or are representative) of what you think a librarian is like.
Explain and provide examples of affirming and denying antecedents
Affirming antecedent: In conditional reasoning tasks, claiming that the “if . . .” part of the statement is true. This kind of reasoning leads to a valid or correct conclusion.
Example: Affirming the antecedent (valid) This is an apple; therefore this a fruit ( this is true, given that an apple is a fruit and not a vegetable)
Denying antecedent: In conditional reasoning tasks, the fallacy (or error) of claiming that the “if . . .” part of the sentence is false. Denying the antecedent leads to an invalid conclusion
example: Denying the antecedent (invalid) This is not an apple; therefore it is not a fruit. ( this is false given that the fruit category is not limited to just apples)
What is confirmation bias?
The tendency to try to confirm or support a hypothesis rather than try to disprove it.
Provide a definition for small-sample fallacy and base-rate fallacy.
Small sample fallacy: In decision making, the assumption that a small sample will be representative of the population from which it is selected. This assumption often leads to incorrect decisions.
Base-rate fallacy: In decision making, paying too little attention to important information about how often an item occurs in the population (its base rate).
Referencing back to previous chapters what is overconfidence and what effect those it have on decision making?
Overconfidence means that your confidence judgments are higher than they should be based on your actual performance on the task.
People typically have more confidence in their own decisions than in predictions that are based on statistically objective measurements. In addition, people tend to overestimate their own social skills, creativity, leadership abilities, and a wide range of academic skills (Kahneman & Renshon, 2007; Matlin, 2004; Matlin & Stang, 1978; Moore & Healy, 2008). and even, physicists, economists, and other researchers are overconfident that their theories are correct (Trout, 2002)
What is a availability heuristic, provide an example.
Def: Estimating frequency or probability in terms of how easy it is to think of relevant examples of something.
After seeing a lot of news stories about plane crashes, you start to think flying is more dangerous than driving because those vivid plane crash stories are easier to remember.
Explain and provide examples affirming and denying consequences
Affirming consequence : In conditional reasoning tasks, the fallacy (or error) of claiming that the “then . . .” part of the sentence is true. This kind of reasoning leads to an invalid conclusion
Example: Affirming the consequent (invalid) This is a fruit; therefore this is an apple. (just because something is a fruit, it does not mean that it is an apple)
Denying consequence: In conditional reasoning tasks, claiming that the “then . . .” part of the sentence is false. This kind of reasoning leads to a correct conclusion
Example: Denying the consequent (valid) This is not a fruit; therefore this is not an apple. ( If the object is not a fruit, it can be nor an apple nor any other subject of that category)
For example, researchers have studied people who seek medical advice for insomnia (Harvey & Tang, 2012). As it happens, when people believe that they have insomnia, they overestimate how long it takes them to fall asleep. They also underestimate the amount of time they spend sleeping at night.
Additionally, it has been showing that the explanation for this occurrences is that people share data that is consistent with the diagnoses they came up with.
Explain the conjunction rule and conjunction fallacy.
conjunction rule: the probability of the conjunction of two events cannot be larger than the probability of either of its constituent events (Newell et al., 2007).
conjunction fallacy: people judge the probability of the conjunction of two events to be greater than the probability of either constituent event.
What are the five Reasons for over confidence provided by chapter 12?
1. People often don’t realize that what they "know" is based on weak guesses or unreliable sources.
2. We easily notice information that supports what we already believe, but we avoid looking for evidence that might prove us wrong.
3. It's hard for people to think of other possible explanations, and since we rely on memory to make decisions, we tend to be too confident in our own ideas.
4. Even if we do remember other options, we often don’t take them seriously anymore—they seem unimportant once we've made a choice.
5. Most people aren’t taught to question their confidence. So before making a decision, we rarely stop and ask ourselves, “Am I using fast, automatic thinking, or should I slow down and think more carefully?”
What is a recognition heuristic, provide an example.
Def: A situation in decision making that occurs when someone is trying to decide which of two categories occurs more frequently. If this person recognizes one category, but not the other, then she or he concludes that the recognized category has the higher frequency
Example: You asked to choose which ice cream flavor is better: Chocolate or Pistachio. You've only ever tried chocolate so you choose it. Since you have recognize one option and not the other you assume that chocolate must be better or more likely to be preferred.
Explain what dual-process theory is and the two kinds of processing that fall under it.
Dual- Process Theory: ry In reasoning and decision making, the approach that distinguishes between two types of cognitive processing.
Type 1 processing: is fast and automatic; it requires little conscious attention
Type 2 processing: is relatively slow and controlled. It requires focused attention, and it is typically more accurate
Describes how theme 3 of the book "Cognitive processes handle positive information better than negative information" is connected to this chapter base on your previous knowledge
The cognitive burden of deductive reasoning is especially heavy when some of the propositions contain negative terms (rather than just positive terms), and when people try to solve abstract reasoning tasks (rather than concrete terms)actors on reasoning. Theme 3 of this book states that people can handle positive information better than negative information. As you may recall from Chapter 9, people have trouble processing sentences that contain words such as no or not. This same issue is also true for conditional reasoning tasks.
What is the illusory correlation error and how can it be related to stereotyping?
illusory correlation: occurs when people believe that two variables are statistically related, even though there is no actual evidence for this relationship.
According to the research, we often believe that a certain group of people tends to have certain kinds of characteristics, even though an accurate tabulation would show that the relationship is not statistically significant (Fiedler & Walther, 2004; Hamilton et al., 1993; Risen et al., 2007).
Explain the two types of decision making styles provided in the book
- Maximizers are people who have a maximizing decision-making style; they tend to examine as many options as possible. The task becomes even more challenging as the number of options increases, leading to “choice overload”.
- Satisficers are people who have a satisficing decision-making style; they tend to settle for something that is satisfactory (Simon, 1955).
What is the Anchoring and Adjustment heuristic, provide an example.
Def: In decision making, beginning with a first approximation, which serves as an anchor, and then making adjustments to that anchor, based on additional information. Typically, people rely too heavily on the anchor and their adjustments are too small. This heuristic is also known as the anchoring effect.
A store shows a jacket that was "$300, now only $150!" You think $150 is a good deal—even if the jacket is only worth $100. The original price of $300 acts as an anchor, and you adjust down from it, even if the anchor was unrealistic.