Deductive Reasoning
What is a Syllogism?
A sequence of -usually two- statements and a conclusion where the reader has to decide if the conclusion is true based on the statements, not on real-world knowledge
We judge that a sample is likely if it is similar to the population from which it is sampled.
What are some of the factors that influence the availability heuristic?
Recency-the more recent the examples, the more easy they come to mind
Familiarity- the more familiar we are with an example, the easier it comes to mind
Recognition-If you recognize one option but not the other, they conclude it occurs more frequently
What is conditional (propositional) reasoning?
The reader must draw a conclusion based on a conditional or "If..then" proposition.
Name a factor that influences representative heuristics.
Sample size- we ignore sample size when it does not matter
Base rate- we ignore how often something occurs in a population
Conjunction rule- we often ignore that the probability of a "conjunction" of 2 events cannot be larger than the probability of either of the individual events
-When people were encouraged to recall unpleasant events, they later judged unpleasant events to be more likely
What is Antecedent in propositional terminology?
If statement, comes first
-the "if" part is true
Why does the small-sample fallacy occur?
We falsely think a small sample will be as representative as a larger sample
What is Illusory correlation?
It occurs when people believe that two variables are statistically related, even though there is no real evidence for this relationship.
What is consequent in propositional terminology?
-The "then" part is true
A study done by Kahneman and Tversky (1973) found that...
People rely on representativeness when asked to judge category membership.
Even when provided with base-rate information, people tend to ignore it
Stereotypes influence people
When making an estimate, people begin with a first approximation (anchor), and then make adjustments to that number on the basis of additional information
Why do individuals process positive information better than negative information?
It takes longer to process, and it leads to more errors
What is the Availability Heuristic?
Estimate frequency or probability in terms of how easy it is to think of relevant examples
What is the framing effect?
Two factors can influence the outcome of your decision
-The background context of your choice
-The way in which the question is worded