Risk Factors
variables that reduce the likelihood of recidivism
Protective Risk Factor
The proportion of individuals who have a condition of interest that are correctly classified by a test
Sensitivity
A statistical procedure that allows for simultaneous consideration of sensitivity and specificity at various points along a range of scores
Receiver Operating Characteristics (ROC)
a risk factor associated specifically with the individual being assessed
Idiographic Risk Factor
Statistical procedures for estimating risk of recidivism that are specifically designed to exclude professional judgment
Nondiscretionary risk assessment procedures
a dynamic risk factor that is long standing
Stable Risk Factor
The proportion of individuals who do not have a condition of interest that are correctly classified by a test
Specificity
a mistaken prediction that an event will not occur
False negative error
a statistical table that depicts recidivism rates for subgroups of the derivation sample and their corresponding scores on an actuarial risk assessment instrument
Experience Table
a highly individualized approach to risk assessment that seeks to identify personal risk factors for an individual offender
Anamnestic assessment
A risk factor for recidivism that cannot be changed by intervention
Static Risk Factor
Occurs when high-risk groups have lower recidivism rates than low-risk groups
Probability reversals
An index of the overall classification accuracy of a risk assessment instrument
Area Under the Curve (AUC)
The degree to which different raters (evaluators) obtain similar results
Inter-rater reliability
A fully unstructured approach to risk assessment that relies on clinical knowledge and intuition
Unstructured Clinical Judgement (UCJ)
a transient, short-lived, dynamic risk factor
Acute Risk Factor
the problem wherein rare events are more difficult to predict than commonly occurring ones
Base rate problem
A mistaken prediction that an event will occur
False positive error
research samples that are used to test the generalizability of recidivism data collected from the derivation sample for ARAIs
calibration or cross-validation sample
risk assessment procedures designed to include professional judgment
Discretionary risk assessment procedures
A risk factor for recidivism that can be altered by intervention
Dynamic Risk Factor
Occurs when the predictive validity of ARAIs decreases in cross-validation
Shrinkage
seek to predict membership in one of two groups. are specific predictions that an offender will or will not reoffend
Binary predictions
the sample of offenders that provides the foundation for the statistical prediction formula and experience table that are the core components of actuarial risk assessment instruments
derivation sample
A research design used to combine the results of several studies into essentially one large study. Meta-analysis provide a quantitative review of a large body of research
Meta-analysis