5.1 Simulation Probability and Chance
5.2 Probability Rules
Conditional Probability
Star Wars
100
At a sporting event, cheerleaders will throw 50 bundled T-shirts into the crowd. The T-shirt sizes consist of 10 small, 15 medium, and the remainder either large or extra large. Suppose Ana catches a T-shirt. What is the probability that she will catch a T-shirt that is not a size small?
100
According to a report for veterinarians in the United States, 36.5 percent of households in the United States own dogs and 30.4 percent of households in the United States own cats. If one household in the United States is selected at random, what is the probability that the selected household will own a dog or a cat?
100
Mating eagle pairs typically have two baby eagles (called eaglets). When there are two eaglets, the parents always feed the older eaglet until it has had its fill, and then they feed the younger eaglet. This results in an unequal chance of survival for the two eaglets. Suppose that the older eaglet has a 50 percent chance of survival. If the older eaglet survives, the younger eaglet has a 10 percent chance of survival. If the older eaglet does not survive, the younger eaglet has a 30 percent chance of survival. What is the probability both Eaglets survive?
100
Who killed Jabba the Hut?
200
The probability that a randomly selected visitor to a certain website will be asked to participate in an online survey is 0.40. Avery claims that for the next 5 visitors to the site, 2 will be asked to participate in the survey.
Is Avery interpreting the probability correctly?
200
A high school science teacher has 78 students. Of those students, 35 are in the band and 32 are on a sports team. There are 16 students who are not in the band or on a sports team. One student from the 78 students will be selected at random. Let event BB represent the event of selecting a student in the band, and let event SS represent the event of selecting a student on a sports team.
Are BB and SS mutually exclusive events? Explain.
200
The table shows the responses from 103 people when asked if they support a proposal to expand the public library.
One person from those who responded will be selected at random. Which of the following is closest to the probability that the person selected will be someone who responded no, given that the person selected is age 55 or older?
.818
200
Who is the stormtrooper FN-2187
Finn
300
A middle school chess club has 5 members: Adam, Bradley, Carol, Dave, and Ella. Two students from the club will be selected at random to participate in the county chess tournament. What is the probability that Adam and Ella will be selected?
300
For flights from a particular airport in January, there is a 30 percent chance of a flight being delayed because of icy weather. If a flight is delayed because of icy weather, there is a 10 percent chance the flight will also be delayed because of a mechanical problem. If a flight is not delayed because of icy weather, there is a 5 percent chance that it will be delayed because of a mechanical problem. If one flight is selected at random from the airport in January, what is the probability that the flight selected will have at least one of the two types of delays?
.335
300
Mating eagle pairs typically have two baby eagles (called eaglets). When there are two eaglets, the parents always feed the older eaglet until it has had its fill, and then they feed the younger eaglet. This results in an unequal chance of survival for the two eaglets. Suppose that the older eaglet has a 50 percent chance of survival. If the older eaglet survives, the younger eaglet has a 10 percent chance of survival. If the older eaglet does not survive, the younger eaglet has a 30 percent chance of survival. Given the younger eagle survived, what is the probability the older eagle also survived?
300
How many star wars movies are C3P0 and R2D2 in?
10
400
For a school fund-raiser, 600 raffle tickets were sold by students at the school, of which 88 were sold by one student, Audrey. Of the 600 tickets sold, 30 were randomly selected to receive prizes, and 7 of the 30 tickets selected were tickets sold by Audrey. To investigate how likely it was by chance alone that at least 7 of the 30 selected tickets could have been sold by Audrey, students in a statistics class ran a simulation. One trial of the simulation is described by the following steps.
Step 1: From 600 chips, assign 88 red and the rest blue.
Step 2: Select 30 chips at random without replacement.
Step 3: Record the number of red chips in the selection of 30.
The results of 1,000 trials of the simulation are shown in the histogram.
Based on the results of the simulation, is there convincing statistical evidence at the significance level of 0.05 that the event of Audrey selling at least 7 of the 30 selected tickets is unlikely to have occurred by chance alone? Explain.
400
A high school science teacher has 78 students. Of those students, 35 are in the band and 32 are on a sports team. There are 16 students who are not in the band or on a sports team. One student from the 78 students will be selected at random. Let event BB represent the event of selecting a student in the band, and let event SS represent the event of selecting a student on a sports team.
Are BB and SS independent events? Explain.
400
Mating eagle pairs typically have two baby eagles (called eaglets). When there are two eaglets, the parents always feed the older eaglet until it has had its fill, and then they feed the younger eaglet. This results in an unequal chance of survival for the two eaglets. Suppose that the older eaglet has a 50 percent chance of survival. If the older eaglet survives, the younger eaglet has a 10 percent chance of survival. If the older eaglet does not survive, the younger eaglet has a 30 percent chance of survival. Let X be the number of eaglets that survive. What is the probability distribution of X?
400
What is the name and profession of the person who said, "This is how liberty dies — to thunderous applause"?
Senator Padme Amidala
500
Mateo plays on his school basketball team. From past history, he knows that his probability of making a basket on a free throw is 0.8. Suppose he wants to create a simulation using random numbers to estimate the probability of making at least 3 baskets on his next 5 free throw attempts. Describe a simulation he could use to do this.
500
A contestant’s final winnings on a game show are determined by a random selection of a base amount and a possible multiplier. For the base amount, the contestant randomly selects one of four cards, where two cards are marked $1,000, one card is marked $2,000, and one card is marked $5,000. After choosing the card, the contestant randomly selects one of five chips, where three chips are red and two chips are white. If the selected chip is red, the contestant’s final winnings are twice the value of the base amount. If the selected chip is white, the contestant’s final winnings are the value of the base amount. What is the probability that a contestant’s final winnings are exactly $2,000?
.4
500
A new type of drug came out and 3% of the U.S. population uses it. A test for usage of this drug has a 10% false positive rate and a 1% false negative rate. Given somebody has tested positive for usage, what is the probability they are a user?
500
What is the name of this character
Bib Fortuna