Conditional Reasoning
The 'if' part of a conditional statement that comes first
What is the antecedent?
Two types of cognitive processing: fast/automatic Type 1 and slow/controlled Type 2
What is dual-process theory?
We judge that a sample is likely if it is similar to the population from which it is sampled
What is the representativeness heuristic?
Estimating frequency or probability based on how easy it is to think of relevant examples
What is the availability heuristic?
When the outcome of a decision is influenced by background context and how the question is worded
What is the framing effect?
When you say the 'if' part is true and reach a valid conclusion
What is affirming the antecedent?
When people make judgments based on prior beliefs rather than rules of logic
What is the belief-bias effect?
How often an item occurs in a population, which people often ignore when using representativeness
What is the base rate?
When people believe two variables are statistically related even though there is no real evidence
What is illusory correlation?
When confidence judgments are higher than they should be based on actual performance
What is overconfidence?
When you say the 'then' part is true, leading to an invalid conclusion
What is affirming the consequent?
The tendency to confirm or support a hypothesis rather than try to disprove it
What is confirmation bias?
When we falsely think a small sample will be as representative as a larger sample
What is the small-sample fallacy?
Beginning with a first approximation and then making adjustments based on additional information
What is the anchoring and adjustment heuristic?
The 'knew it all along' effect where we say an event was inevitable after it happens
What is hindsight bias?
When you say the 'then' part is false, leading to a valid conclusion
What is denying the consequent?
A form of deductive reasoning with two true statements plus a conclusion using 'all, none, some'
What is a syllogism?
When we judge the probability of two events co-occurring to be greater than one event alone
What is the conjunction fallacy?
The range within which we expect a number to fall a certain percentage of the time
What is a confidence interval?
When we underestimate the amount of time or money necessary to complete a project
What is the planning fallacy?
The 'then' part or consequence that comes second in a conditional statement
What is the consequent?
Deductive reasoning that describes the relationship between conditions using 'if...then' statements
What is conditional (or propositional) reasoning?
The rule stating that the probability of two events occurring together cannot be larger than one event
What is the conjunction rule?
People create a variety of heuristics to make useful, adaptive decisions in the real world
What is ecological rationality?
The theory explaining why we think of gains differently than losses when making decisions
What is prospect theory?