Extreme outcomes are more likely to be found in small rather than large populations.
What is the Law of Small Numbers
100
Using a number or value as a starting point and adjusting from there is known as....
What is anchoring.
100
The logic of how people should change their minds in light of new evidence
What is Bayesian Reasoning
100
Probability judgments are ________ for richer and more detailed scenarios
What is higher
100
We are prone to availability bias when events are _________ but ____________.
What is dramatic but rare.
200
When it comes to randomness, once we believe something exists, we have little trouble coming up with a ___________________ for why it exists.
What is causal explanation
200
When we make judgements of our past selves, we are anchored to our _________ beliefs and attitudes
What is current
200
Estimate the likelihood of an event by comparing it to an existing prototype that already exists in our minds
What is Representative Heuristic
200
Extreme scores and performances tend to be followed by less extreme scores and performances
What is regression to the mean
200
The process of judging frequency by the “ease with which certain instances come to mind,” mental shortcut that relies on immediate examples that come to a person's mind when evaluating something
What is Availability Heuristic
300
Recall the map of bombs dropped by Germany over London turing WWII. What was the pattern?
What is NO PATTERN, IT'S RANDOM YO
300
When we adjust away from an anchor, we are using which system?
What is system 2
300
Judging the conjunction of two events as more likely than the event itself
What is The Conjunction Fallacy
300
One source of availability bias is __________, some events are easier to think about or "simulate" mentally, making them more available.
What is imagination
400
As the number of trials of a random experiment increases, the results will approach the expected value.
What is The Law of Large Numbers
400
We use anchors in _________ situations to provide estimates. We then search memory for relevant info, and then adjust in whatever direction we determine.
What is ambiguous
400
When judging representativeness, we tend to ignore __________.
What is base rates
400
Daily Double!!!!! Perception of causal relationships between events = __________________
What is story/scenario construction
400
The emotion evoked by an event may have an effect on memory and memory based judgments, this is known as what?
What is the Affect Heuristic
500
We seek causal explanations and fall into the error of small numbers because we are ____________. This is due to System 1!
What are pattern seekers
500
The main moral of priming research is that our thoughts and behaviors are influenced by the ___________ of the current moment
What is environment/context
500
The representative heuristic most commonly manifests in what social phenomenon?
What is stereotyping
500
Change from the first observation to the second does not always need _____________.
What is causal explanation
500
This is a self-sustaining chain of events that starts from reports of minor incidents and leads to large scale public reactions and interventions, like the Alar Apple Scare.