Statistical Fallacies
When we compare two items with each other.
What is an anology?
*We notice that these items are the same in one or more ways and conclude that they will be the same in other ways also.
As an individual, I believe it is good for me to plan and control all the decisions in my life. And that's why I believe, as a society, we should let the government control all aspects of our society.
What is part-to-whole?
*If it is wise for individuals to plan and control their lives, then is it wise for society as a whole to be planned and controlled?
A group of people or things which all have some common characteristics.
What is a class?
What is Either-Or?
When you look for something, why is it always in the last place you look?
Because when you find it, you stop looking.
What are ways people make hasty generalizations?
1. Too small of a sample
*If our sample is not large enough, then it might not be representative of the class we are studying.
2. Not a representative sample
*Sometimes the sample for a generalization is large, but it isn't representative of the entire class.
Geeky College Student: Mrs. Mempher, this chocolate cake is delicious. What did you put in it?
Mrs. Mempher: Oh, I included some flour, some chocolate, some sugar, some butter..
Geeky College Student: Whoa! I have some butter at home! The minute I get home, I'll eat a stick of butter. If this delicious cake has butter in it, then a stick of butter must taste just as good.
What is Whole-to-Part?
*Act it Out, pg 97*
What are the 3 qualities of an inquiring mind?
1. Loves to Listen
2. Exercise our minds.
3. Looks at opposing viewpoints.
"Southerners talk fast. I was just on the phone with one, and he sure talked fast."
What is a hasty generalization?
What's made of wood but can't be sawed?
This fallacy claims that some items with only minor similarities are the same in almost everything else.
What is a weak analogy?
Grumpy old lady: It must have been raining, snowing, sleeting, or hailing earlier, because the streets are wet. It couldn't be snow or sleet because it's July. It couldn't be hail because I haven't heard any thunder-storms. So it must have rained.
What is Either-Or?
*The neighborhood children were having a huge squirt gun fight in the street. This is an either-or argument, even though the grumpy old lady considered more than two possibilities.
We examine: (1) one salesman, (2) two used car salesman, (3) all the jellybeans in the dish, (4) the last four times Bert won Clue. All these are what?
What is a sample of an individual class?
All large colleges in conservative towns are nice; all blue Fords which have V-8s will be fast; 78 percent of all salmon patties are infected with E. coli, etc.
What is a generalization?
You throw away the outside, eat the inside and throw away the inside. What am I?
Corn on the Cob
Takes a sample from a class of things, then, using the characteristics from that sample, says something about everything in that class.
What is a Generalization?
Suzzy: Can I go over to Mandy's house for an hour?
Mother: If I say yes, you're going to ask if you can stay the night at her house!
Suzzy: Can I?
What is a Slippery Slope?
*The mother should answer the daughter's question, even if she knows her daughter will ask for more later. However, you can give the poor mom a break. She was right!
True or False
A generalization:
1. Relies upon a study of every single member of the class.
2. There is nothing absolutely certain about generalizations.
3. A generalization becomes weaker as the sample grows larger and more representative.
4. Any generalization must be either adjusted or overthrown by a single contrary case.
False.
*A generalization relies upon samples of a class, which becomes stronger as the sample grows larger and more representative.
"The difference between the right word and the almost right word is the difference between lightening and the lightening bug."
-Mark Twain
What is a Poetic Analogy?
*This is commonly used by authors to make a point. They are not supposed to be very precise. They are just used to illustrate a point.
People buy me to eat, but never eat me. What am I?
Plates and Cutlery
"All dogs have fleas. I just finished examining every single dog in the universe, and they all have fleas."
Not a fallacy.
"Seeing that the eye and hand and foot and every one of our members has some obvious function, must we not believe that in like manner a human being has a function over and above those particular functions?"-Aristotle, Nicomachean Ethics
What is Part-To-Whole?
*If all the parts of the human body were made for a function, then human beings as a whole also have a purpose.
Turn this generalization into an analogy:
All cloudy days will be rainy days.
Yesterday was cloudy and it rained.
The day before that, it was cloudy and it rained.
Today is cloudy.
Conclusion: I think it will rain.
"Rock music is bad for you. I heard a test was done with cows. They had two milk cows listen to music. One listened to Mozart, and the other listened to heavy metal. The one that listened to Mozart produced more milk and acted more contented, while the one that listened to heavy metal ate more, knocked over the milk bucket, and grew a horn."
What is a weak analogy?
What runs around the house, but doesn't move?
A fence