History of Polling
What is the purpose of informal polls like those on social media?
Provide a general idea of what the readership thinks.
What is the main drawback of robo-polls?
They have a low response rate.
What is a drawback of a sample size that is too big?
Increase costs
Questions that lead respondents to select a predetermined answer.
Leading Questions
What type of polling is relatively new and have replaced straw polls?
Modern public opinion polling
How has the use of technology changed polling methods over the years?
Polling is less face-to-face and now occurs mainly through phone or internet. Companies keep databases of information.
How does sample size affect the accuracy of a poll?
A larger sample size could lead to a more accurate poll.
Social pressure to answer questions in accordance with the norms of their area or peers.
Bradley Effect
Describe the significance of the 1936 Literary Digest poll.
The lacked scientific data collection from their opinion cards and their prediction was wrong.
What are the roles of statisticians and methodologists in polling?
They are trained in conducting polls and analyzing data. They ensure scientific criteria is met for reliability.
What criteria should be considered to determine if a poll is scientifically reliable?
SAY AT LEAST 2: Margin of error, polling dates, number of respondents, and population sampled.
Consists of a group whose demographic distribution is similar to that of the overall population.
Representative Sample
What are straw polls, and how do they differ from formal polling?
Straw polls are informal and not random.
Explain the difference between a random sample and a representative sample.
Representative sample = of a group whose demographic distribution is similar to that of the overall population.
Random sample = limited number of people from the overall population.
What is the main consequence of a high margin of error in polling results?
Asking voters who they voted for on Election Day.
Exit Poll
When was the first opinion poll?
1824
What is a random sample?
Consists of a limited number of people from the overall population, selected in such a way that each has an equal chance of being chosen.
What is the margin of error in polling, and why is it significant?
It states how far the poll results may be from the actual opinion of the total population of citizens. The lower the margin of error, the more predictive the poll.
Political campaign information presented as polls.
Push Polls