Rev. Thomas Bayes
Bayes was born the son of a Presbyterian minister in 1701 in this city.
What is London?
The FDA generally places top priority on control of this error rate.
What is Type-I error?
This statistical approach interprets probability as the long-run frequency of events in repeated trials.
What is frequentist statistics?
The Binomial distribution is conjugate to this distribution with support on (0, 1)
What is beta?
He's one of the co-authors of "The horseshoe estimator for sparse signals"
Three possible answers: Who is James G. Scott, Nick Polson, or Carlos M. Carvalho?
This type of interval is the Bayesian analog to the confidence interval.
What is the credible interval?
Bayes’ theorem was originally developed to address the inverse probability of this kind of event.
What is a binomial or success/failure event?
According to FDA guidance on master protocols, this type of clinical trial compares multiple drugs against a single disease.
What is a platform trial OR What is a umbrella trial?
In Bayesian statistics, this term refers to the initial belief about a parameter before observing any data.
What is prior?
With a normal prior and normally distributed observations, the posterior is has this form
What is normal?
He was founding chair of biostatistics at MD Anderson in Houston and started an eponymous consulting firm in Austin.
Who is Don Berry?
This programming language for posterior sampling is written in C++ and relies on Hamiltonian MCMC
What is Stan?
Reverend Thomas Bayes studied logic and theology at this British university.
What is University of Edinburgh?
ICH E9(R1) established this framework for defining what treatment effect is being estimated in a trial
What is estimand framework?
Unlike with frequentist methods, Bayesian inference allows you to update this as new data becomes available.
What is the posterior probability?
This continuous distribution is often used as a conjugate prior for variance in the normal model
Who is inverse gamma?
This statistician called Bayesian statistics "inverse probability" in his classic 1939 textbook Theory of Probability
Who is Harold Jeffreys?
In contrast to the posterior mean, this estimate is obtained by optimizing the posterior distribution function
What is MAP (maximum a posteriori)?
Bayes never published his famous theorem in his lifetime. His work was discovered and published posthumously in 1763 by this friend of his.
Who is Richard Price?
According to ICH E10, this type of control group uses data from previously conducted studies.
What is historical control?
This type of interval in frequentist statistics gives a range that would contain the true parameter in a certain percentage of repeated samples.
What is a confidence interval?
This distribution is the generalization of the beta and is conjugate to the multinomial
What is Dirichlet?
She co-wrote the classic textbook "Data analysis using regression and multilevel models" with Andy Gelman
Who is Jennifer Hill?
This is a modern alternative to MCMC that approximates the posterior by optimization.
What is variational inference?
In 1736, Bayes published a mathematical work titled "An Introduction to the Doctrine of Fluxions" which defended work on calculus by this scientist
Who is Isaac Newton?
The FDA started this initiative in 2025 that includes case studies to better understand and address the challenges in rare disease drug development.
What is LEADER 3D?
This philosophical difference separates Bayesian and frequentist views: one treats parameters as fixed, the other as random variables.
What is the interpretation of probability?
The gamma is conjugate to the Poisson and the posterior predictive is this count distribution for overdispersed data
What is Negative Binomial?
As a professor at U. of Valencia, she co-authored "The interplay of Bayesian and frequentist analysis" with Jim Berger
Who is Susie Bayarri?
This non-informative prior has a density function proportional to the square root of the determinant of the Fisher information matrix, i.e., det(I(theta))^(1/2)
What is the Jeffreys prior?