The First Manifest
At the beginning of Kevin Roose's New York Times article about Manifest, he wrote "I had never before attended a business conference with a 28 percent chance of" this
What is an orgy?
The King of Manifold, he became infamous in 2023 after spending thousands of dollars betting on his own market Whales v. Minnows
Who is Isaac King?
Any of the guests on the Market Manipulation Podcast
Many correct answers: Who is Austin, Stephen, Sinclair, James, Audrey, Kyle, Allison, Amelia, Allie, Zoe, Lucia, Lachlan, Frank, or Sophia?
Austin Chen and Rachel Weinberg run this company which is only two letters different from Manifold
What is Manifund?
GASLIGHT ROUND: There will be a 1-minute game of Gaslight. Whoever wins, wins
[Jacob judges]
This technique was used to smuggle the ballpit into Manifest
What is bringing it through the side door?
This user often placed bets in the form of "traunches"
Who is Spindle?
A wannabe competitor to the Market Manipulation Podcast, often referred to as "vaporware" due to extreme delays in releasing its only episode
What is Crystal Ballin'?
I wrote this anime waifu's second tweet, which was "a ___, a nah, can ama" — a reference to the popular palindrome "a man, a plan, a canal, Panama"
Who is Mana-chan?
ROCKFINDING ROUND: Starting when I say go, whichever constant first presents me with a genuine rock wins. One, two, three, go!
[I got a mana rock!]
My "clusterfuck" market on whether this AI safety advocate and YouTuber (not Scott Alexander!) would attend Manifest "as some part of the official program" vacillated wildly in response to news about whether he was really sick
Who is Robert Miles?
This allegedly-feline user recently faced clawbacks relating to "counterfeit mana"
Who is Orangey?
Isaac King accused me of rubbing this substance on our microphone to sabotage the sound quality
What is sandpaper?
I've long felt that manifold.love should adopt this alternative name, which parallels "Manifold", "Manifest", and "Manifund" linguistically
What is Manifuck?
TALENT PORTION: Each contestant will have 30 seconds to perform a short song, dance, or other demonstration of talent. Your goal: to entertain and delight me.
[Jacob judges who was best]
DAILY DOUBLE: Wager any amount up to max(your current score, 800)
What is Manifest Destiny?
This Conflux Market Correction Mana Grant recipient went on to be #1 on the all-time leaderboard
Who is Joshua?
In Episode 5, when asked about reasons for choosing the name Manifold, Austin mentioned that a very good trader could receive "__ returns"
What is many-fold?
This was the original name for Manifold
What is Mantic Markets?
KINGMAKING ROUND: Whichever player has the highest score (break ties at random) has thirty seconds to come up with a Manifold Lore Jeopardy question. Whichever of the other two players answers it first gets the points. If the question is too hard and no one answers it correctly, the question writer gets 400 mana. If I think it's a good question, I will give the writer 100 mana.
[based on question results]
My original market on whether Manifest would have a ballpit was inspired by watching a video on this disastrous conference also organized by a 19-year-old
What is Dashcon / tumblr conference?
This user, with 0 Following and 1 Follower, is #1 for "Loss" on the Manifold leaderboard with a loss of 50,001,618 mana
Who is Behemoth?
This is the full tagline of the Market Manipulation Podcast (I will allow some wiggle-room on phrasing but not much)
What is "The world['s] premier podcast created for the discussion of new implementations, betting strategies, or events surrounding Manifold [Markets] with at least one episode uploaded for public viewing that [is somewhat high quality and] is 10 mins or longer by market close"?
DAILY DOUBLE: Wager up to max(your current score, 1000)
What is Manicode?
AUCTION ROUND: Win goes to whoever contestant gives me the largest / most appealing bribe. I accept mana, USD, and gifts
[Jacob decides]