Brain Teaser
What has to be broken before you can use it?
Egg
These patterns are characterized by repeatable periods of ups and downs over short periods of time.
Seasonal Patterns
This is the slowest step in a process that effectively limits the capacity of the entire operation.
Bottleneck
This forecast error metric heavily penalizes "big misses" through the mathematical power of squaring.
Mean Squared Error
I am a word that begins with the letter "e," ends with the letter "e," but I usually only contain one letter.
Envelope
I am tall when I am young, and I am short when I am old. What am I?
Candle
This qualitative forecasting method relies on gathering data directly from frontline employees and regional sales teams.
Grassroots Forecasting
Expanding your capacity before demand actually rises, in order to minimize the chances of not meeting demand, is known as this strategy.
Capacity Lead Strategy
This metric represents the average of the sum of the absolute deviations for all the forecast errors.
Mean Absolute Deviation
I have keys but no locks, space but no room, and you can enter but you can’t go outside.
Computer Keyboard
What can you catch, but never throw?
Colds
This data pattern exists when data exhibits rises and falls that are not of a fixed period, and they usually last for more than 2 years.
Cyclical
In the Theory of Constraints, an environmental or organizational constraint—such as low product demand or inflexible work rules—is classified as this.
Nonphysical Constraint
This metric essentially takes the Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) and scales it into percentage units for easier interpretation.
Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE)
What runs but never walks, murmurs but never talks, has a bed but never sleeps, and has a mouth but never eats?
River
I have cities, but no houses; mountains, but no trees; and water, but no fish. What am I?
Map
This forecasting approach involves consulting a panel of experts who anonymously reply to questionnaires in iterative rounds until a consensus is reached.
Delphi Model
This system consists of dynamic methods to allocate perishable assets, forecast demand, decide overbooking, and determine pricing.
Revenue Management System (RMS)
In Exponential Smoothing, you should use this specific type of smoothing constant if you want a highly responsive forecast that adapts quickly to market changes.
High Alpha
A man who was outside in the rain without an umbrella or hat didn’t get a single hair on his head wet. Why?
Because he was bald!