Strategic Foresight
How is strategic foresight defined?
It is structured thinking about various potential future scenarios to inform strategy
What is the difference between state-building and nation-building?
State-building is technical assistance to institutions; nation-building is the endogenous process of constructing a national identity.
How does NMI differ from the previous training mission (NTM-I)?
NMI is an advising mission focused on strategic-level structures, whereas NTM-I focused on training.
What was significant about the 9th China-Russia joint aerial patrol?
China deployed a nuclear-capable H-6N bomber for the first time.
How many members do NATO and the EU share?
They currently have 23 members in common
What is the "tyranny of the present"?
The tendency to focus on urgent daily crises while struggling to address long-term challenges like climate change
Why did the "Weberian-ideal state model" fail?
It ignored local contexts and the traditional patterns of governance (tribalism) in Afghan society
What is the primary objective of NMI?
To reform Iraqi security forces and help prevent a resurgence of Da’esh.
Which Iranian drone model is now produced inside Russia?
The Shahed 131/136 is manufactured at the Alabuga factory in Tatarstan.
What are the "Berlin Plus" arrangements?
A framework allowing the EU to use NATO’s collective assets and planning capabilities for its own military operations
What is "backcasting"?
A method that starts with an envisioned future and defines the steps needed today to achieve it
How much international aid was absorbed by the Afghan government?
Only between 30 and 50 percent; much was lost to mismanagement or corruption
Why is Iraq considered a geostrategy "flashpoint"?
It is a theatre where Iran, Russia, and China compete for influence against Western interests
How does Iran benefit from providing drones to Russia?
It receives confiscated Western equipment for reverse engineering and secures Russian political backing
What is the purpose of the NATO-EU Task Force created in 2023?
To improve resilience and the protection of critical infrastructure in energy, transport, and digital sectors.
What are "fringe futures"?
Scenarios that currently fall outside the realm of what is considered plausible.
What role did the "Durand Line" play in the conflict?
It is a contested border that arbitrarily split the Pashtun ethnic group between Afghanistan and Pakistan
What type of support does NMI provide beyond military training?
Institutional capacity-building and defense sector reform assistance
What is "transshipping"?
A process where illicit actors acquire Western components through third-party distributors to bypass export controls
Why is NATO-EU cooperation critical for European security?
Because it enables coordinated responses to hybrid threats and maximizes resource efficiency
What is the purpose of scenario planning in strategic foresight?
To explore multiple plausible futures and reduce uncertainty in decision-making
What was a major limitation of externally imposed governance models in Afghanistan?
They lacked legitimacy among local populations and failed to align with indigenous political structures
How does NMI contribute to long-term stability in Iraq?
By strengthening governance structures and enhancing the professionalism of security forces
What strategic objective underpins China-Russia military cooperation?
To counterbalance Western influence and demonstrate joint military capabilities
What challenge affects deeper NATO-EU integration?
Political divergences and membership asymmetries between the two organizations