What is and isn't social science?
What is social science?
Uses transparent procedures at all stages of the process Uses evidence systematically Tests our hunches against alternatives and Acknowledges uncertainty and especially randomness
Define prediction
Claims or questions that theorize about an outcome based on some observed pattern. The key here is that prediction is future thinking
What is the difference between a causal question and a causal claim? Provide an example of both with your explanation.
Causal questions are first and foremost questions about the relationship between a cause and effect. Claims are statements that explain the relationship between a cause and an effect.
Ex. Why does the U.S. have more gun murders per capita than Canada? The U.S. has more gun murders per capita than Canada because U.S. gun laws
are less strict than Canadian gun laws.
What is a descriptive claim?
Describes the state of the world. No reference to a causal effect.
What is a variable? Provide a definition and an example.
A characteristic that can be measured and that can assume different values.
Ex. Degree of Democracy
What is not social science?
Over reliance on interpretation of patterns. Theory adduced from/supported by this evidence. Does not acknowledge randomness or uncertainty. Emphasis on esoteric (ie “hidden hand”) explanations. Extremely resistant to contrary evidence.
Define explanation
Statement or description that explains an observed relationship between a cause and an effect
State the counterfactual for this causal claim: Regular press conferences on Covid-19 held by Provincial Health Officer Dr. Bonnie Henry and B.C. Health Minister Adrian Dix have reduced British Columbians’ anxieties about the pandemic.
Without regular press conferences on Covid-19 held by Dr. Bonnie Henry British Columbians' anxieties about the pandemic would not have reduced or would have been higher
How would you make this prescriptive question into a causal one? Then explain why the prescriptive claim is supported by your causal claim.
"Should the U.B.C. campus commit to all (or mostly) online instruction next semester
(ie Winter Term 2)?"
Ex. Online instruction reduces carbon emissions because students do not have to commute to school. UBC should commit to online instruction because it will reduce carbon emissions and reducing carbon emissions is a good thing for the environment.
What is measurement bias? Provide a definition
Measurement bias is when the measurement procedures will tend to systematically overestimate or underestimate the value of the variable relative to the “right" answer.
What is a conspiracy theory?
Reasoned explanations of events that seem otherwise intelligible or improbable.
What is an example of a predictive causal claim?
Ex. A 10% decrease in studying will cause a 5% decrease in overall grade.
What is the difference between structural causes and triggering events? Provide an example with your explanation.
Structural causes are underlying factors or conditions within a system or society that contribute to a particular outcome or phenomenon. Triggering events are substitutable. If it was not this event it would have been something else. Triggering events do not meet the counterfactual causality. If the trigger had not happened, the outcome still would have occured.
Ex. Structural causes = climate change, dry weather etc... Triggering event = spark from gender reveal party
Cause = wildfire
What is conjunctural causation? Provide an example with your definition.
Claim that requires two or more variables to be present for an outcome to occur
What do we mean when say that measurement bias will systematically overestimate or underestimate the value of the variable relative to the "right" answer. What is the "right" explain.
The "right" answer is the "true" average that exists in a population. This is an average that we never observe but we can get close to by minimizing measurement bias
What is conspiracism? Provide an example with your definition.
This goes beyond explaining a phenomenon and virtually dispenses with the idea that anything needs to be explained at all. The questioning of phenomena that you can observe with your own eyes.
Ex. Sean Spicer claiming that Trump had the largest inauguration crowd in history despite photographic evidence that suggests otherwise.
Democracy appears to be good for you health, explain the causal logic.
Voting can more easily bring about removal of government --> Government officials have to please larger numbers of citizens to stay in office --> Governments must spend greater resources on improving citizen health
What makes a good theory?
Theory must be non-circular, must be testable, and must be falsifiable.
What is a probabilistic causal claim? Provide an example with your definition.
A causal claim that makes an effect more or less likely to occur.
Ex. "Studying 10 hours for the midterm makes an A grade more likely to occur"
Provide an example of measurement bias
Ex. Rate how racist you think you are on a scale from 0 to 100
Explain what the non-systematic use of evidence is.
Essentially cherry-picking evidence to support a theory without considering contrasting evidence.
True or False. All predictive theories are causal theories. Explain your reasoning.
The correct answer is FALSE, because we can often make very good predictions based on correlations alone even in the absence of a strong causal theory. A causal theory is helpful but not strictly speaking necessary.
What is the difference between inductive and deductive reasoning?
Inductive: The goal is to theorize about why a pattern exists, rather than theorizing that it ought to exist on the basis of some general principle.
Deductive: Expectations are developed on the basis of general principles. Ie., utility-maximization, or the idea that people make choices based on maximizing benefits and reducing costs
Is believing your causal claim sufficient for someone to agree with your prescriptive/normative claim? Why or why not?
No, because they need to place the same value judgement that you did on the outcome.
How might we measure the level of conflict intensity in Ukraine? Give some examples.
Assign values to sub-variables (sub-dimensions) that map onto the variable of interest (intensity of conflict)
(eg categories of weapons being used, casualties [battle-related deaths], laws of war broken, force size).