Types of Probability
Probability based on all possible outcomes, without experiments
What is theoretical probability?
A systematic error that skews results
Bias
protect participants and ensure valid results
Ethics
The whole group you're studying
Population
Juice company checks 10 cartons: what’s the population?
All cartons they manufacture
Probability based on actual trials or data
What is experimental probability?
They guide responses and distort data
Leading Questions
Participants may be harmed or data unusable
Consequences of lack of privacy
A smaller selection to represent the population—saves time/resources
Sample
Surveying every Grade 9 student—sample or census?
Census
Based on personal judgment or experience
What is subjective Judgement?
Example: “Do you agree that gas guzzling SUVs should be banned?” Problem?
Use of Language
Ads appeared after Sasha’s survey – what’s the issue?
Data misuse and tracking violates ethics
Surveying the entire population
Census
Cultural Sensitivity
“Samantha orders a medium coffee to win again.” What type is this?
Subjective probability
Why is timing important when collecting surveys?
Timing affects who responds and how they respond
Problem with Andrew’s bullying show‑of‑hands?
Peers can influence answers; not private
which do scientists use more?: census or sample — and why?
Sample—it's practical and faster
Irina surveyed 20 kids at her middle school, and they claimed they eat a healthy breakfast. she then claimed all students eat a healthy breakfast—what’s wrong?
She generalized a small, likely biased sample to the whole student body
Explain the flaw in “Shaq either makes or misses a shot, so there’s a 50% chance.”
It ignores his actual success rate—skills matter
Rewrite biased: “Is it a good idea to use DNA to convict violent criminals?”
“What are your thoughts on using DNA evidence in criminal cases?”
Providing a clear budget for a survey
Cost effective
what are some of the improvements to society from data collection
conservation of wildlife, tehcnological innovation, understanding of the human body and psyche
Write an example of how a politician could use the same statistic to argue to opposing viewpoints
varies