Role of Democracy
Researchers have found that democracies can increase, decrease or have a ______ relationship to terrorism.
Curvilinear
We have been discussing democratic dilemmas in terms of efficacy and morality. Discuss the relationship between these two.
Can be effective/moral, effective/immoral, ineffective/moral
In what way does negotiating with rebel groups “reward bad behavior”?
Rebel groups are more likely to be invited to negotiations when they launch more terror attacks during civil war
Name a reason terrorism might be ineffective.
Civilian-centric terrorist groups fail to coerce because they miscommunicate their policy objectives; Terrorism may send a signal that terrorists don’t want to send; states may infer that negotiations or concessions are pointless
What strategy might you take to limit lone wolf attacks?
Preventing radicalization online
What is one structural reason that democracies could face terrorism?
Civil liberties – limits policing and retaliation against terrorists (reduces costs)
Publicity – free press provides publicity (increases benefits)
Underreporting – autocracies don’t report (could be related to publicity arg)
Institutional Design: Electoral rules that allow alternative venue for grievances (increase benefits of non-terror)
Judicial independence that allow more credibly commitments to respect individual rights in the future (increase probability of receiving benefits of non-terror)
Why do low base rates make profiling problematic?
There will be a lot of false positives, which means you cause hardship for a lot of innocent people
What type of effect might conciliatory action have on terrorism?
Could lower terror, but there are selection problems
Name a reason terrorism might be effective.
A lot of attention, optimal for weak actors
What are the two most common ways that terrorism ends?
Policing, politicization
What is one organizational reason that democracies could face terrorism?
Democracies are more vulnerable to mobilization generally. Once populations know how to mobilize, terrorism will occur at the fringes.
Why might successful campaigns again guerrilla groups create terrorist groups?
Attempting to take territory becomes less attractive to weaker groups and thus they prefer to use terrorist tactics instead
What is the free riding problem with counterterrorism?
Everyone wants to reduce terrorism, but no one wants to pay for it
Abrahms reports that 7 percent of terrorists groups are victorious in their goals. What selection problem might this study have?
Selection on dependent variable; groups that became legitimate are not on the list. So this estimate is too low.
What group factors affect whether/how the group ceases?
Ideology, motive, strength
What is one political reason that democracies could face terrorism?
Certain policies or parties may increase terrorism (economic discrimination, underrepresentation, military operations abroad)
How can successful retaliation on terrorist organizations increase incentives for terrorism?
Backlash: intrinsic, instrumental
It is unclear whether military aid disarms terrorists. What is one reason we’ve discussed that the US continues to give money?
The aid prevents host states from negotiating with terrorist organizations and changing a (US favorable) status quo
Fortna takes selection bias seriously. What does she find about the success of terrorist groups?
More likely to lose outright, less likely to have a negotiated settlement, less likely to win outright, more likely to be in an ongoing conflict (duration)
What state factors affect whether/how the group ceases?
Economy, regime type
Why might partial democracies be more susceptible to terrorism?
Grievances: repression and territorial disputes create grievances that a partial democracy cannot fully suppress (the way an autocracy might); occupation creates widespread grievances against more advanced democracies
Instability: partial democracies may also be going though civil war, power vacuums, periods of big change, etc. All may foster terrorism
How does the quest for “absolute security” present a dilemma?
Difficult to tell at what point to stop counterterrorism
What dilemmas does partnering with other governments to fight terrorism pose?
The governments may have repressive regimes, corruption, discriminatory societies
Al-Qaeda and ISIS occupy similar ideological spaces. Why don’t they get along?
Disagree on killing Muslims and brutality, who to target first, and when to form a state
What is a potential path forward to dismantle al-Qaeda and ISIS?
Selective policing- avoid backlash and maybe help the group self-destruct