Role of Democracy
Researchers have found that democracies can increase, decrease or have a ______ relationship to terrorism.
Curvilinear
Why is cognitive dissonance relevant to discussing counterterror policies?
Dissonance is created when we see ourselves as moral but support policies we believe are immoral but potentially effective.
True or False: Rebel groups are more likely to be invited to negotiations when they launch more terror attacks during civil war
True.
What type of signal might terrorists inadvertently sending about themselves when they use terrorist tactics?
That they are extreme and so unable to reach a negotiated settlement
Why did AQI splinter from al Qaeda (3 reasons)?
Killing Muslims/Brutality; Who to target first; When to form a state
What is one structural reason that democracies could face terrorism?
Civil liberties – limits policing and retaliation against terrorists (reduces costs)
Publicity – free press provides publicity (increases benefits)
Underreporting – autocracies don’t report (could be related to publicity arg)
Institutional Design: Electoral rules that allow alternative venue for grievances (increase benefits of non-terror)
Judicial independence that allow more credibly commitments to respect individual rights in the future (increase probability of receiving benefits of non-terror)
What is one important problem with ethnic profiling.
Low base rates mean there will be a lot of false positives, which means you cause hardship for a lot of innocent people
What is the term for the problem leaders encounter when they need to negotiate international agreements but also satisfy domestic constituencies.
Two level game.
Outcome goals are the ultimate political aims of the organization. _____ goals are those that further the organizational survival of the group.
Process (redemptive)
What are the two most common ways that terrorism ends?
Policing, politicization
What is one organizational reason that democracies could face terrorism?
Democracies are more vulnerable to mobilization generally. Once populations know how to mobilize, terrorism will occur at the fringes.
“the exception, once accepted, tends to become the rule as the definition of military necessity slips to cover the use of torture to acquire expedient information” is what type of logic?
Slippery slope logic
What is the free riding problem with states fighting counterterrorism?
Everyone wants to reduce terrorism, but no one wants to pay for it
Abrahms reports that 7 percent of terrorists groups are victorious in their goals. What selection problem might this study have that limits our ability to make causal claims?
What group factors affect whether/how the group ceases?
Ideology, motive, strength
What are the two factors that make democracies most likely to experience terrorism
Illiberal practices of territorial disputes; provocative international force posture
What are three reasons collateral damage happens?
Focus on force protection, poor/low information, strategic incentives for militants
Define moral hazard and adverse selection as they pertain to allies fighting terrorism on behalf of another country.
Moral hazard: agents have incentives to expend less effort to fight terrorism than principles do, so that funding to fight terrorism continues
Adverse selection: the countries that most need aid to fight terrorism are in the worst position to effectively do so (e.g. they are weak, unstable, etc.)
In civil wars, Fortna finds that rebels that use terrorism are more likely to _____ and _____.
____ ideologies draw from diverse and even competing ideological streams of thought.
Salad bar
Why might partial democracies be more susceptible to terrorism?
Grievances: repression and territorial disputes create grievances that a partial democracy cannot fully suppress (the way an autocracy might); occupation creates widespread grievances against more advanced democracies
Instability: partial democracies may also be going though civil war, power vacuums, periods of big change, etc. All may foster terrorism
Name three principle of jus ad bellum (just conduct during war) and provide an example of how they apply to counterterrorism
distinction; proportionality; military necessity; no use of evil weapons; fair treatment
States strategically choose which tactic to use – maybe they use the most violent measures against the most extreme, strongest groups.
Intergroup violence can encourage civilians to ‘choose a side’ and support a group
Can encourage crucial innovation
Can provide new incentives to group members
Can spoil peace talks that could otherwise lead groups to give up violence
This new tactic widely used by states is seen as an emerging potential tactic for terrorist organizations
Cyber-attacks (also acceptable: drones)