Material from WPR 1 isn't covered, right?
_______ realism argues that states seek just enough security to maintain the status quo.
Defensive realism.
Waltz argues that individuals explain state behavior according to this image.
1st image.
Allison presents these three conceptual models for state behavior.
Rational policy model, organizational process model, bureaucratic politics model.
Spruyt presents these three theoretical explanations for the emergence of the state.
War as the catalyst; economics as the catalyst; institutions as a catalyst
This term describes the idea that when one state increases its security (through power in a realist world), it decreases the security of other states.
The security dilemma
power, security
What are 2 of the 4 personality traits of leaders that explain how they matter in determining state behavior
Risk tolerant leaders increase p(conflict); delusional leaders increase p(conflict); leaders with grandiose visions increase p(conflict); unpredictable leaders increase p(conflict)
According to this conceptual model, actors are constituted by a constellation of loosely allied organizations that are parochial (self-interested) and limited by programmed character.
Organizational Process Model
In response to Melian pleas to the Athenians to restrain their use of force, the Athenians responded with this famous quote.
The strong do what they can and the weak suffer what they must.
These two characteristics determine the intensity of the security dilemma.
offense-defense balance and offense-defense distinguishability.
Neoliberal institutionalism argues institutions reduce the probability of conflict through these three mechanisms.
Reduce uncertainty, reduce transaction costs, facilitate reciprocity
This concept postulates that there are limits to the rationality for individuals.
Bounded rationality
These two conceptual models are alternatives to the rational policy model and explain why governments sometimes take actions that may lead to suboptimal foreign policy solutions.
Organizational Process Model, Bureaucratic Politics Model
Skeptics, state moralists, and cosmopolitans.
A doubly dangerous world is one in which there is an _______ advantage and distinguishability is _______.
offensive; low
According to liberal economic interdependence theory, high trade between the United States and China should ________ the probability of war between the two countries.
decrease
This term describes the cognitive bias that individuals are not intuitive probability thinkers and do not accurately and adequately use probability to predict and understand the world
Poor estimators
In the bureaucratic politics model, individuals who occupy critical positions within an administration engage in bargaining where outcomes are the result of these four activities: ____, ____, ____, ____
compromise, coalition building, competition, confusion among government officials who see different faces of an issue
Moral arguments can be judged in these three ways according to Joseph Nye
motivations, means, consequences
A state may have these three responses to a power shift working against it.
internal efforts (arms build up); external efforts (alliances); preventive war
These four components constitute threat in balance of threat theory according to Walt.
aggregate power, proximate power, offensive power, offensive intentions
These four steps describe the actions of a rational actor
1. Rank order preferences
2. Develop COAs
3. cost-benefit analysis of COAs
4. Choose value-maximizing option
This Soviet submariner may have prevented the launch of a nuclear weapon and the start of WWIII as a result of SOPs.
Vasily Arkhipov
This concept according to Posen increases the intensity of warfare because of its ability to mobilize the "creative energies and the spirit of self-sacrifice of millions of soldiers".
Nationalism
This concept identified by Schelling is the power to hurt, the threat of damage that can make someone yield or comply.
Coercion