Patterns
Data points are recorded in chronological order
What is a time series?
If the value is less than 10%, the model has a good fit
What is MAPE?
It is the difference between the observed value and the forecast
What is a residual?
Methods that have level and slope effects?
What are trended time series method?
The parameters of the double exponential smoothing
What is level and trend?
Regular patterns that repeat over a fixed and small period
What is a seasonality?
It is used to measure an average relative error in %
What is MAPE?
The average value is equal to zero
What is the residual?
Uses previous observations to forecast future ones based on averaging
What is moving average method?
It is the weight that is assigned to the observed data
What is the smoothing constant (alpha)?
Regular patterns that repeat over a fixed and large period
What is cyclicity?
Penalizes larger errores more heavily
What is the MSE?
It is used to determine if errors are related
What is the independence test?
Method that separates trend, seasonal and irregular components
What is decomposition?
Weight given to the most recent observation
What is a smoothing constant?
It measures how a variable's value at one point in time is correlated with its values at earlier points in time (lags).
What is autocorrelation?
What is MSE?
Residuals that are normally distributed, independent and with equal variance
What is white noise?
Method used to model correlated data
What is the ARIMA method?
It is the weight assigned to predicted value in exponential smoothing
What is 1 - smoothing constant (alpha)?
A company’s sales increase over time, but the amplitude of seasonal variation also grows.
What is a multiplicative decomposition model?¡
It is used to identify a small fit but not the best fit of the model
What is the MSE?
Its objective is to detect patterns not captured by the model
What is the residual analysis?
Method that models both trend and seasonality?
What is Decomposition? or What is Holt-Winters?
The number of autoregressive terms
What is p in ARIMA?