Tech
Microsoft will dominate enterprise AI through Azure and Copilot integrations. The company is the clear winner of the AI transformation.
Microsoft is overpaying for AI infrastructure that will commoditize faster than expected, margins will compress, not expand
Chipotle is a best-in-class operator with unit growth runway and pricing power. Digital/loyalty drives same-store sales growth sustainably.
Portion sizes and consistency have degraded, social media backlash is early signal of brand damage that shows up in comps 6-12 months from now. Young people cannot afford a burrito and Klarna is going out of style.
GLP-1 drugs (Mounjaro, Zepbound) are mega-blockbusters. Eli Lilly will print money for the next decade on obesity/diabetes demand.
Oral GLP-1s from competitors will commoditize the market by 2027-28, pricing power collapses. Insurance reimbursement gets slashed as costs balloon, TAM shrinks by 40-50% when patients have to pay $500+/month out of pocket
Meta's AI investments are paying off in ad targeting and engagement. Reels is winning against TikTok, and Reality Labs losses are acceptable given the long-term metaverse opportunity.
People aren't interacting with the ads they are given, even though META is the first company to monetize their AI investments, it's not giving a high enough return to justify the valuation.
McDonald's is a mature, stable cash machine. Modest same-store sales growth and buybacks drive steady returns. Value menu competition limits upside.
Emerging market franchisees are building density that creates local monopolies, international margin expansion is a 5-year tailwind no one is modeling
Telehealth had a COVID bump but growth has stalled. Commoditized service, low switching costs, unprofitable. Dead money.
I lowk do not have a variant view on this at all, I see telehealth as like a little add on an insurance company can give you to try and make a small difference. I will say tho once I overslept and missed a final and I paid like 100 bucks out of pocket for a telehealth appointment so I could get a doctor's note, it was so clutch.