The History of Weather Forecasting
According to Nate Silver's book, The Signal and the Noise, weather forecasting just began to advance in the past 50 years or so (Silver 112). Why has it taken so long for weather forecasting to cultivate?
There was a lack of technology! Computer technology was not created until the 1950s.
The development of computer technology paved the way for the formation of complex mathematical weather models to aid meteorologists in forecasting. In fact, the first use of computer models during the 1950s resulted in a significant increase in forecast accuracy ("The National Weather Service at 150: A Brief History").
What are all weather forecasting companies' main goals?
They want to predict the weather correctly! The ultimate goal is to have a society that is prepared for and responds to weather, water, and climate events. All companies want to give the most accurate information to users to make everyone's lives safe and enjoyable ("Forecasts and Service").
Do weather forecasters tend to over-forecast or under-forecast?
Meteorologists tend to over-forecast!
Many weather forecasting companies are willing to admit that they over-forecast because it affects their economic incentives. Over-forecasting gives companies a greater probability that their forecast will be right. For example, many private weather forecasting companies tend to slightly exaggerate the probability of rain when it is unlikely to occur, because it will protect their reputation if it unexpectedly rains more than their initial forecast called for (Silver 135-136).
How far in advance can people look at weather forecasts before they become unreliable?
A week in advance can accurately predict the weather about 80% of the time ("How Reliable Are Weather Forecasts").
Anything beyond seven days is known to have zero skill because computer models begin to produce feedback of their own since they do not have any recent feedback to draw predictions from (Silver 133).
True or False: Saying "The Weatherman is always wrong" is harmless.
False! Complaining about inaccurate forecasts may seem harmless, but it is very toxic for meteorologists themselves.
Unnecessary pressures from the public tend to create more stress for meteorologists. For example, if they know that they may be harshly criticized if their forecast of a storm is worse than expected, they will often forecast the most serious and dangerous scenarios, so they avoid being blamed at the cost of knowingly withholding their real best guesses ("Weather...Or Not").
Ultimately, it's important to remember that meteorologists are humans, and they are doing the best they can at their job. It may be easy to knock them, but they deserve our gratitude!
What are the three main forecasting tools that meteorologists use today?
The three primary tools are satellites, radar, and surface maps (Jones).
According to Nate Silver's book, The Signal and The Noise, there are three different types of weather forecasting. What are the three different weather forecasting names?
The three weather forecasting names are public, private, and local (Silver 128).
The three ways to judge the quality of a forecast are accuracy, honesty, and economic value (Silver 129-130).
If weather forecasts are not known to be accurate when looking over a week in advance, why do meteorologists still publish forecasts so far in advance?
Some customers like planning and knowing things ahead of time. Therefore, publishing forecasts ten days or more in advance does not cause much harm. Even a forecast based purely on climatology is better than nothing at all to some customers (Silver 133).
True or False: All TV weatherman and women are trained meteorologists.
False! According to bestvalueschools.com, "Many TV weathermen and women aren't trained meteorologists. In fact, most members of the American Meteorological Society are not on television" ("Are Most TV Weather Forecasts Real Meteorologists").
In what era did people realize greater knowledge and technology was needed to forecast the weather?
The end of the Renaissance Era (17th century).
By the end of the 17th century, weather myths and personal observations were not relied on to predict the weather. Instead, many people realized that instruments were needed to measure the properties of the atmosphere, such as moisture, temperature, and pressure ("Weather Forecasting Through the Ages").
Which weather sector (public, private, or local) do most people in society use, and why?
Most people in society use private weather sectors!
Although everyone has their own preferences of which company they think provides the best weather forecasts, many customers rely on private weather sectors because these companies translate raw weather data into day-to-day verbiage that is easy to understand. Additionally, these private weather sectors are known to be "more accurate" because companies like the Weather Channel get to use the government's raw data as their starting point, and then they can add whatever value they think is beneficial to their customers (Silver 128-129).
Although many meteorologists have their own personal biases when forecasting the weather, research has proven that computer models cannot predict the weather alone. Therefore, why are human minds needed to create weather forecasts?
According to The Signal and The Noise, meteorologists know the flaws in computer models. Their eye-sight is a valuable tool; they are able to quickly sort through data and find abstract qualities like pattern and organization which are very important in different types of weather systems (Silver 128).
Looking from the computer perspective, "they are too literal-minded, unable to recognize the pattern once it's subjected to even the slightest degree of manipulation" (Silver 128).
How often do weather forecasts change?
Weather forecasts are updated as often as multiple times a day. Sometimes a forecast cannot change at all from what it was a couple days in advance. Other times, the weather can change only a couple hours in advance. Short answer, weather is constantly changing, so only time can tell (Rudd).
Weather data is constantly changing; therefore, meteorologists must have "fox-like" mentalities in order to create the most accurate and reliable predictions for their customers (Silver 54)!
How is weather forecasting a science and an art?
Many people think weather forecasting is only a science because complicated algorithms and diverse scientific computations are mainly involved. However, humans play an integral part in the artistic side of weather forecasting. A forecaster's artistic imagination is a vital part to interpret 3-D weather patterns. Additionally, their creativity and judgement in processing data information leads to more credible and reliable predictions when combined with science (Garrate).
How was weather initially predicted in B.C (before Christ) time?
Early civilizations used reoccurring astronomical and meteorological events to help them monitor seasonal changes in the weather!
More specifically, "Around 650 B.C. the Babylonians tried to predict short-term weather changes based on the appearance of clouds and optical phenomenon such as haloes" ("Weather Forecasting Through the Ages").
*Haloes = an optical phenomenon produced by light interacting with ice crystals suspended in the atmosphere.
How is public weather forecasting different from private weather forecasting?
Public weather forecasting provides its data free of charge for anyone who wants it. They also create the original weather forecasts (Silver 128).
Private weather forecasting companies charge their users, but they focus specifically on their customer's needs and they give specific weather results to residents in particular areas (Silver 128).
What is a "wet bias" forecast?
A "wet bias" forecast is when a weather forecaster overestimates and exaggerates the probability of precipitation to increase the usefulness and actionability of their weather forecast (Silver 134).
What is the relationship between weather forecasting accuracy and time?
The farther out the model is, the less accurate they turn out to be (Silver 132).
The closer in time a model is, the more accurate they turn out to be (Silver 132).
Which weather event kills the most people in America each year: tornados and hurricanes or extreme temperatures?
In 1861, the Met Office issued the first public forecast, which began modern-day weather forecasting. Who was their first target audience?
Sailors and fishermen were their first target audience!
Weather forecasting was crucial for sailors and fishermen because they were out on waters quite often, and accurate weather forecasts became life-saving if there were any dangerous storms in the forecast (Myronets).
Currently, how much money is the private weather forecasting industry worth?
Private weather forecasting is a $1.7 billion industry, and it is projected to keep on growing. In fact, private weather forecasting agencies are projected to be worth $4.18 billion globally by 2030 ("Weather Forecasting Services Market Size Worth").
Many people argue that group weather forecasts would reduce the number of personal biases. However, meteorologists tend to work by themselves and create their own weather predictions. Why are weather forecasts created individually, rather than by a group?
Individual forecasts are known to be less bias than a group forecast.
Instead of just settling on one forecast that is created by the entire group, individual forecast submissions give a diversity of models that allows different opinions and viewpoints to be average or aggregated together, which can improve predictive accuracy. Additionally, more forecasts allow for different bugs to be detected to improve accuracy. Group-think is very dangerous because some members of a group may be more influential because of their status, but not necessarily because their idea is the best (Silver 134).
What percentage of the time is a ten day or longer forecast actually correct?
Forecasts that are predicted ten days or more in advance are only approximately right 50% of the time ("How Reliable Are Weather Forecasts").
Weather and climate changes so frequently. Forecasts created more than seven days in advance are almost never 100% accurate. In fact, Nate Silver suggests that these forecasts can actually display "negative skill." This means that forecasts are worse than what an average human could predict by looking at a table of long-term weather averages (Silver 133).
Many people do not believe you can determine how far away you are from a lightning strike without complex scientific equipment. However, you actually can determine your distance away from lightning! How can you use simple math to know how far away you are from a lightning strike without needing complex scientific equipment?
Once you see a flash of lightning, count the number of seconds until you hear the crack of thunder, then divide this measurement of time by five- it takes the sound of thunder about 5 seconds to travel a mile. The result is the number of miles away you are from the lightning strike ("Extreme Events: Myths and Misconceptions").
For example, if it took 10 seconds to hear thunder after you saw a streak of lightning, then you are 2 miles away from where the lighting strike hit.
10 seconds / 5 seconds per mile = 2 miles