Civil War & Terrorism
Terrorism
The threat or actual use of violence by non-state actors to coerce a target into making concessions. Often, but not always, motivated by ideology. It is a coercive tactic by which small, poorly equipped actors can nevertheless leverage meaningful concessions from larger, stronger adversaries.
Comparative Advantage vs. Absolute Advantage
Comparative advantage is the concept of states gaining by specializing in the production and export of what it makes most efficiently relative to the efficiency it could achieve in making other things. Absolute advantage refers to the ability to do something better than others.
SOMEHING else
State-level theory explaining that democracies are less likely to go to war with one another. The dependent variable is war between two states (dyads), the independent variable is regime type. There are various causal logics. Some versions of the theory are monadic, stressing that democracies are more accountable to the people who do not like bearing the costs of war. Others approach democratic peace theory dyadically, considering shared economic linkages or democratic norms. (FLS, 175-187)
MAD, first-strike, and second-strike forces
MAD - mutually assured destruction - refers to the mutual deterrence that emerges between nuclear weapon states when both sides can credibly threaten to strike the other with nuclear weapons. First strike capabilities refer to launch an attack that successfully eliminates all of your enemy’s nuclear capabilities (counterforce) in one hit before they can be used against you. Second strike capabilities refer to the ability to launch a retaliatory attack against your enemy because your nuclear forces were able to survive a first strike.
Civil War
Civil wars are wars between organized groups within a state (rather than interstate wars which are between states). Civil wars often involve the forces of a government fighting against one or multiple organized groups (rebels). Following the Cold War, global politics saw a sharp increase in the number of civil wars in the international system.
Hecksher-Ohlin/Stolper-Samuelson Theorem
Free Riders and Climate Change
Free riding involves states continuing with self-interest behavior while other states in the international system cooperate (and undertake costs in doing so). As a global challenge, climate change requires tremendous cooperation from the international community.
Stability-Instability Paradox
Humanitarian intervention
Humanitarian Intervention refers to the the use of military force by one state against another with the explicit goal of alleviating human rights abuses/atrocities. Norms surrounding human rights and humanitarian intervention emerged following the Second World War and further solidified after the Cold War with the emergence of the Responsibility to Protect (R2P) doctrine.
Free Trade vs. Protectionism
Free trade and protectionism operate as opposing doctrines of international trade policy. Free trade captures international trade policy that seeks to limit the number of artificial barriers between states, allowing for the free exchange of goods and services along the logic of comparative advantage. Protectionism refers to the use of artificial tools (quotas, tariffs, and regulations) designed to shield domestic producers from importers.
Collective Action Problems
State-level theory that explains some cases of war. Leaders fight wars to produce a "rally around the flag effect" and distract the public from domestic problems when they cannot ignore, fix, or repress those problems. In theory, states whose regimes face legitimacy crises (usually autocracies) with low capacity to fix or repress problems are especially prone to pursuing diversionary wars. The dependent variable is war. The independent variable is the state's capacity to address domestic issues. The causal logic is the leaders' will to stay in power and the use of a diversionary war to increase a leader's domestic political situation.
Counterforce vs. Countervalue
Counterforce: The use of nuclear weapons to target the nuclear arsenal of an adversary. States want to eliminate the nuclear arsenals of their rivals so that they cannot use second-strike capabilities to retaliate from attack. Requires successfully eliminating sea-based weapons (usually on submarines) and ground-based weapons (usually in hardened silos or aircraft on the ground).
Countervalue: The use of nuclear weapons to target the cities of an adversary. States want to hold major population centers hostage as a deterrent against nuclear first-strikes.
Counterinsurgency
Any policy, including the use of force, designed to eliminate an insurgent threat. Strategies for counterinsurgency are typically ivided into two approaches: "Hearts and Minds" and "Butchers and Bolts." Hearts and Minds strategies treat insurgency as a political problem; insurgencies end when governments restore their legitimacy and address grievances of the people, often with the help of external actors ("state-building"). Butchers and Bolts strategies treat insurgency as a military problem; insurgents end when rebels are eliminated through violence.
Ricardo-Viner Model
Ricardo-Viner theorem asks why whole industries often act together with respect to trade policy. It is theoretically distinct in focusing on industries within factors of production (i.e. the aerospace industry vs. the automobile industry) rather than the broader factors themselves (land, labor). Trade policy interests in the Ricardo-Viner model reflect whether workers are based within an import-competing industry or not.
Tragedy of the Commons
A framework for understanding leader incentives to provide public goods for the whole population versus rewarding their core supporters. Leaders with a large voting selectorate (typically democracies) find it more efficient to provide public goods, whereas leaders with a small voting selectorate have loyal supporters who fear defection and can be easily bought off with private goods. As a result, countries with a large voting coalition tend to have more stable foreign relations, more successful foreign policies, and higher levels of international cooperation. (Lecture Slides 5.2; Bueno de Mesquita and Smith, 2011)
Theory of the Nuclear Revolution
The argument that nuclear weapons make conflict between states less likely because they create a balance of power between countries with vastly difficult capabilities. Nuclear weapons make conventional military victory useless and transform the conduct of conflict from winning wars to preventing wars. This is the essence of MAD, or "Mutually Assured Destruction." Nuclear weapons can deter attack; quality and quantity do not matter due to the destructive force of even a single bomb.
Greed vs. Grievance Explanations for Civil War
The greed vs. grievance debate captures the two core theoretical approaches advanced to explain the causes of civil war. 'Greed' captures theoretical explanations that focus on the desire of combatants to better their situation (increasing their access to political power, natural resources etc.), as well as combatant access to financing for rebelling. 'Grievance' approaches focus on issues of identity, explaining the onset of civil war as a function of ethnicity, religion, political identity etc.
New New Trade Theory
New new trade theory explains different trade policy preferences as a reflection of firms rather than industries or factors of production. Firm level explanations for international trade policy is based on the observation that the *vast* majority of exporting is conducted by a very small number of firms. New new trade theory argues that the largest, most productive firms in an industry want free trade. Smaller, less productive firms in an industry are more likely to want protection.
Climate winners and losers
National leaders do not always make decisions rationally. Two types of psychological biases are important to consider: 1) over-confidence, and 2) willingness to take risk. Both of these factors increase the likelihood of initiating a conflict and can shape how leaders seek out and interpret information about foreign policy decisions. The general public exhibits these biases, as well as personality disorders, illnesses, etc. However, leaders may be more likely to do so, because the process of coming to power through election or force rewards this kind of risk acceptance and confidence.
Arms control vs. disarmament
Arms Control: Efforts to place limits on nuclear weapons development and acquisition. Allows states to retain some stockpile of nuclear weapons. Suffers from the shortcoming that arms control relies on trust and strong monitoring institutions since states have major incentives to cheat. Examples include the SALT I and SALT II treaties between the US and the USSR.
Disarmament: Efforts to completely remove nuclear weapons altogether. Suffers from the shortcoming that the knowledge of how to produce nuclear weapons is already out in the world and can never be eliminated completely. Examples include the Pugwash movement against nuclear weapons during the Cold War.