Theories I
Offense-Defense Balance
Structural theory explaining why security-seeking states nevertheless go to war. Argues that war is more likely when, at the systemic level, it is relatively easier for an aggressor to take and hold territory (offense-dominance). The independent variable is the offense-defense balance, the dependent variable is war, and the causal logic is that aggression pays.
Diversionary War
State-level theory that explains some cases of war. Leaders fight wars to produce a "rally around the flag effect" and distract the public from domestic problems when they cannot ignore, fix, or repress those problems. Also known as "wag the dog." In theory, states whose regimes face legitimacy crises (usually autocracies) with low capacity to fix or repress problems are especially prone to violence. The dependent variable is war. The independent variables are the state's capacity and the presence of a domestic issue. The causal logic is the leaders' will to stay in power.
A means-ends chain that explains how a state can connect economic, political, and military resources with specific objectives to "cause" security for itself. Contains three key components that interact with the creator's fundamental beliefs about international politics:
(1) Identification of key threats
(2) Selection of tools to solve them
(3) Allocation of resources to employ those tools
George Kennan
The founder of the US "containment" grand strategy during the Cold War. Well-read Sovietologist who authored the famous article, "The Sources of Soviet Conduct," which outlined the core principals of containment.
Nuclear Weapons
Also known as an atomic bomb, is an explosive weapon that derives its unparalleled destructive force from the fission or fusion nuclear reactions. Differs from other weapons due to the speed and scale of the destruction they can cause.
Balance of Threat
Structural theory arguing that states form alliances in response to the most immediate threat. Threats are a function of material resources, geography, and intentions. The dependent variable is alliances. The independent variable is the aggregate threat. The causal logic is fear of predation.
Democratic Peace
State-level theory explaining that democracies are less likely to go to war with one another AND more likely to go to war with non-democratic states. The dependent variable is war between two states (dyads), the independent variable is regime type. The causal logic is that democratic states face audience costs are more transparent, and share a Liberal, Kantean ideology.
Isolationism, Containment, and Rollback
Isolation: The US should stay home, avoid foreign commitments, and not make enemies by intervening abroad. Robert Taft
Containment: The US should contain the USSR to its current sphere but not contest its Eastern European empire or seek to overthrow the regime in Moscow. George Kennan and Walter Lippmann.
Rollback: The US should seek to push the Soviets out of Eastern Europe and oust its regime through subversion and military force (including nuclear war). James Burham and Nathan Twining; also John Foster Dulles and Dwight Eisenhower.
Napoleon Bonaparte
Former Emperor of France. Example of a "bad" grand strategist. Managed to conquer all of Europe and then lost it due to over-aggressive designs. Was defeated in Waterloo, Belgium in 1815 and then exiled to St. Helena island.
Finite vs. Global Containment
Finite: The US should contain the USSR (but not necessarily other leftists) from taking Western Europe and other industrial regions, but it should play little role in the developing world (Kennan, Lippman, Morgenthau, Waltz).
Global: The US should contain all leftists everywhere (Acheson, Rostow).
Balancing versus Bandwagoning
Balancing: Forming an alliance with weaker powers to resist predation from a larger power. In a balancer's world, it pays to be less assertive and threatening lest other states ally against you.
Bandwagoning: Forming an alliance with the stronger power. In a bandwagoner's world, it pays to be more assertive and threatening as others will join you.
Bureaucratic Politics
State-level theory that argues individual foreign policy outcomes are the result of competition between the elites who make them. Sometimes, states make poor choices because individuals look out for the interests of their own organizations rather than their country as a whole. "Where you stand is where you sit." The dependent variable is an individual policy outcome. The independent variable is the goals, priorities, beliefs, and organization of the decisionmakers. The causal logic is individual will-to-power and individual desires for self-advancement at the expense of the group.
The Marshall Plan
The Marshall Plan (a.k.a. European Recovery Program, ERP) was created by President Truman's Secretary of State George C. Marshall as the cornerstone of its containment policy. The United States transferred $13 billion to Europe to repair the damage caused by WWII and ensure that the recipients aligned with Washington rather than Moscow.
Otto von Bismarck
Example of a "good" grand strategist. Unified Germany and pacified nearby states in order to prevent the rise of strong, aggressive neighbors.
Types of State Power
Material Power: Population, GDP, natural resources, military might, and projection capabilities
Ideational Power: Beliefs, norms, and persuasion
Institutional Power: Agenda-setting in multilateral institutions
Spiral versus Deterrence Model
Spiral Model: Based on the security dilemma caused by structural anarchy. States are unable to determine whether the actions of a rival are meant to improve that state's security or undermine their own, and there is no global police force. Wars occur between conflict-avoidant states due to the inability of all sides to understand intentions. It is better to de-escalate and disarm than escalate and build-up forces.
Deterrence model: Under anarchy, even minor concessions are a sign of weakness that will cause your opponent to continue their offensive. It is better to maintain a strong, unwavering stance and treat all threats as equally vital. If you give an inch, the adversary will take ea mile.
Tragedy of the Commons
A situation in which individuals who all share a single valuable resource act independently according to their own self-interest and cause depletion of the resource through their uncoordinated action to the harm of everyone else. Can be mitigated through referees or watchdogs to ensure that all individuals share burdens and reap benefits equally.
Massive Retaliation
Nuclear strategy adopted by the Eisenhower Administration to deter conventional advances by the Soviet Union or China by threatening to retaliate for conventional aggression with nuclear force. An example of "Conditional Total Rollback."
Dean Acheson
US Secretary of State to President Truman who helped design the Marshall Plan and NATO. He was also instrumental in negotiations in Vietnam and the Cuban Missile Crisis.
Foreign Lobbies
A group of people with ties to a foreign country who band together through a shared interest to influence the foreign policy decisionmaking of a state through donations, media attention, and other pressure tactics. Democratic states with open, participatory political systems are the most vulnerable to lobby influences. Famous lobbies from US history include the Nationalist China (ROC) lobby during the Cold War and the Israel lobby today.
Birds of a Feather Flock Together versus Fly Apart
Birds of a Feather Fly Together: Ideologically similar states form alliances.
Birds of a Feather Flock Apart: Ideologically similar states compete for control over their movement.
Nationalism
Belief in the strength, independence, and/or superiority of one's own nation. Makes imperialism and conquest even more difficult. Responsible for the formation of anti-colonial movements and the birth of modern countries. Theoriests and experiments demonstrate how even artificial divisions between individuals cause in-group out-group dynamics.
Industrial Eurasia
The major developed industrial areas of the Eurasian continent, embracing specifically Western Europe, Japan, Russia, and, as of the past several decades, China. Contains high GDP, population, and other material indicators of power and threat unlike the developing world.
The Rohingya
Islamic ethnic minority in Burma/Myanmar that has historically been the target of systematic discrimination and ethnic cleansing by the Bamar-majority military government. Atrocities against the Rohingya escalated in 2016/2017, fueled in part by social media and hate speech.
Variants of Rollback
Partial: Push the USSR out of Poland and Eastern Europe
Total: Conquer all of the USSR
Conditional: Rollback only if the Soviets commit aggression.
Unconditional: Conquer the USSR