Information & Bargaining
Define the zone of agreement
What is the range of agreements both actors prefer to going to war?
Define a commitment problem
What is the fear that a deal will not be enforceable over the long term? (That is, that an adversary will renege in the future)
What is using threats to preserve the status vs. using threats to change the status quo?
States may be unable to find the zone of agreement due to (2 reasons)
What are private information, misperceptions, and incentives to misrepresent?
Define audience costs and give an example of one.
What are costs incurred by the public if you do not follow through on a stated threat or promise?
The difference between extended and direct deterrence
What is deterrence on behalf of an ally or proxy, compared to deterrence on one's own behalf?
Costly signals are important indicators of a state’s intentions because
This type of conflict has particularly high commitment problems because
What are civil wars, because one party must disarm to end the war, making them vulnerable to the other's defection?
Successful deterrence rests on this factor
What is credibility?
Two sources of misperceptions
What are inappropriate historical analogies, confirmation bias, multiple interpretations of evidence & states are not unitary actors?
Power transition theory predicts war is most likely at what point, and why
What is when the power of a dissatisfied challenger approaches the power of the status quo power/hegemon?
Two factors that influence the credibility of deterrence
What are structural determinants (balance of power, value of issue) and behavioral determinants (costly signals, reputation, behavior in escalation)?