Match the Word
Match the Number
Certain or Not?
What's the Odds?
What's More Likely?
Dodgy Logic
100
Which of these PROBABILITY TERMS best matches the word 'Safe Bet?'
A Safe Bet means VERY LIKELY (close to certain)
100
How likely to occur is an outcome with a probability of 1?
An outcome with a probability of 1 has a 100% chance, or 1 in 1 odds, of happening. It is CERTAIN.
100
Is it certain, likely, even chance, unlikely, or impossible that... Year 8's are in this room?
CERTAIN - there is 100% chance of this event
100
As a fraction, what is the chance of getting a heads when flipping a coin?
1/2 (1 in 2) chance - there are only two sides on a coin.
100
Which of these situations is more likely - being killed by a flying champagne cork. or being killed by a spider?
CORK - More people are killed each year by flying champagne corks than bites from poisonous spiders. Of the nearly two dozen champagne-accident fatalities a year, more than a third occur at weddings.
100
What's wrong with this graph?
ICE CREAMS - the icons are visually larger than the pizza and fries. This leads you to think that ice creams were sold the most often, even though fries were sold more!
200
Which of these PROBABILITY TERMS best matches the word 'Long odds?'
Long odds means something is UNLIKELY to happen, but not impossible.
200
How likely to occur is an outcome with a probability of 50:50?
An outcome with a 50:50 chance of happening has a probability of happening 50 times, and not happening 50 times - an EVEN CHANCE.
200
Is it certain, likely, even chance, unlikely, or impossible that...It will snow tomorrow at ABHS in Break 1?
(Extremely) UNLIKELY but not impossible - there is almost no chance of this event
200
As a fraction, what is the chance of being in Ilya house if you are a student at ABHS?
1/6 (1 in 6) - there are 6 houses which students can be in. We would have to check that all houses are equal in size to say this with confidence.
200
Which is more likely - being killed by an coconut, or being killed by a shark?
COCONUT - Coconuts kill around 150 people each year, 15 times more than sharks. They can build up an impact speed of 70 km/h as they fall and a force of as much as 1,000 kg.
200
What is wrong with this graph?
THESE DATA ARE NOT RELATED!
You can see that as the number of pirates in the world has decreased over the past 130 years, global warming has gotten steadily worse. In fact, this makes it entirely clear that if you truly want to stop global warming, the most impactful thing to do is -- become a pirate!
300
Which of these PROBABILITY TERMS best matches the word 'Maybe?'
Maybe is a tricky word to describe. Depending on the tone and person you ask, it could be UNLIKELY, EVEN CHANCE, or LIKELY.
300
How likely to occur is an outcome with a probability of 0.45?
An outcome with a 0.45 probability (45 in 100 chance of happening) is slightly less than an EVEN CHANCE.
300
Is it certain, likely, even chance, unlikely, or impossible that...Arsenal will be the 2025 UEFA Champions in soccer/football?
IMPOSSIBLE - there is 0% chance of this event (they have already been eliminated from the competition)
300
As a fraction, what is the chance of getting an Ace in a full deck of 52 cards?
4/52 or 1/13 (1 in 13). There are 4 Aces in a deck of cards, 1 in each of the four suits.
300
Which is more likely - being killed by a boom gate, or winning the Powerball lottery?
BOOM GATE- The chances of winning the lottery, like the Powerball jackpot, are over 1 in 25 million. In 2002, a man from Wales became one of the six unlucky people a year to be killed by car park security barriers. He died instantly when a metal supermarket barrier crashed through his windscreen and hit him in the head on a trip to buy a garden shed.
300
What is wrong with this graph?
There are two problems:
1. PERCENTAGES DON'T MATCH PROPORTIONS
2. PERCENTAGES ADD UP TO OVER 100%
Pie graphs are often used to incorrectly make us think there is a higher chance of one outcome over another.
400
Which of these PROBABILITY TERMS best matches the word 'Could happen?'
When something 'Could happen' it is UNLIKELY or an EVEN CHANCE. It is not probable.
400
How likely to occur is an outcome with a probability of 99 in 100 odds?
An outcome with a 99 in 100 odds, sometimes called 99 out of 100 odds (99% chance of happening) is slightly less than CERTAIN (extremely likely).
400
Is it certain, likely, even chance, unlikely, or impossible that...The sun will rise tomorrow afternoon?
IMPOSSIBLE - this cannot occur at that time due to the movement of the Earth and the current definition of time.
400
As a fraction, what is the chance of today being a school day?
It's normally 5/7, but this week it is 4/7 - because you have a student free (non school) day Tuesday!
400
What is more likely - finding a four-leaf clover, or finding a pearl in an oyster?
EQUAL - The estimated statistical odds of finding a four-leaf clover, or a pearl in a natural oyster on your first try is 10,000 to 1. The chance of finding a five-leaf clover is 1,000,000 to 1.
400
Here is Michael Jordan, the basketball G.O.A.T., on the cover of Sports Illustrated magazine.
Does his good luck mean the Chicago Bulls have a higher probability of winning the NBA Playoffs?
NO - Luck is not the same as probability. This is called the “hot hand” phenomenon. This is the widespread belief that players performing well — such as scoring consecutive basketball shots — are more likely to continue performing well. But good luck does not change the probability of other outcomes happening (like losing).
500
Which of these PROBABILITY TERMS best matches the word 'Buckley's Chance'?
IMPOSSSIBLE OR extremely unlikely - 'Buckley's Chance' is a colloquial Australian expression. The origin of the term is debated, but it is commonly believed to be derived from the name of William Buckley, 'Australia's Robinson Crusoe' who was an escaped convict who survived against the odds in the Australian wilderness for 32 years by living with Aboriginal groups and learning the knowledge of their country.
500
How likely to occur is an outcome with a probability of a million to one shot?
An outcome with a million to one shot means there is 1 in 1,000,000 chance of it happening. This means is it close to IMPOSSIBLE (extremely unlikely).
500
Is it certain, likely, even chance, unlikely, or impossible that... Your teacher is the best teacher at ABHS?
CANNOT SAY - this may be certain (or maybe even, unlikely, even chance, or likely?) - but this is a biased question. We would need to design a fair experiment/event to determine the probability of this outcome.
500
As a fraction, what is the chance of getting any number when rolling a die (1 dice)?
6/6 (6 in 6) - you always get 'any number' when rolling! It is important to check what the question is asking and how it is phrased before determining the probability.
500
What's more likely - being made a saint by the Pope, or being killed by a vending machine?
SAINT - The odds of this are about 20 million to one. The yearly risk of dying from a vending machine incident is about 1 in 112 million
500
Is this logical?
YES - This was a logical answer, but it isn't correct. We can be fooled if we confuse the probability of outcome 'A' given outcome 'B', with the probability of B given A. This sounds confusing at first glance, but it is easier to understand with an example.
Imagine you have a box that contains an animal. Then ask yourself the following question:
Assuming the animal inside is a dog, what’s the chance it is an animal that has four legs?
The probability of that will be pretty high, around 100% – complete certainty. But let’s consider the following question:
Assuming the animal inside has four legs, what’s the chance it is a dog?
This probability will be a lot lower than 100% – there are plenty of other animals it could be while still having four legs.