Robust Plans (Chakraborty)
These decisions depend on the outcome of multiple uncertain conditions
Contingent decisions
Define one of the following: Forecast or Scenario
Forecast - A method that uses quantitative data/analytical frameworks to predict a likely future
Scenario - stories about how the world changes and how it will be changing at a future time
This is a key challenge of exploratory scenarios in planning practice.
time-consuming + complex, exploratory scenarios are objective... values are thought less important in exploratory
Two types of plans mentioned in the Hopkins reading
Comprehensive, inspirational (will accept land use, zoning, and transportation plan as well)
Definition of scenario planning
Practice based and data driven planning for the future (or similar)
What are the three categories of inputs/outputs in the model created for Baltimore?
Economic, Transportation, and Land Use inputs and outputs
Define one of the following: Plan or Project
Plan - contemplates related action in light of multiple scenarios, tested by forecasts
Project - A concrete proposal for action
The two groups of people Avin and Godspeed recommend have buy-in with exploratory scenario process
Leaders and stakeholders
Define normative vs exploratory scenario planning
Normative scenarios: reflect desired or expected futures based on current trends
Exploratory scenarios: examine a wide range of possible futures, regardless of desirability
Pick 1 weakness or strength of scenario creation ONLY (no planning)
Weaknesses: no applicability to the real world (depending)
Strength: Used to show people possible futures and start a conversation
Draw an example of the inputs and outputs in the 2x2 matrix model
Economic, Transportation, and Land Use inputs and outputs
Name 2 of the 4 main themes of the reading regarding the current planning process
Norms, aspirations, ambiguities, and criticisms
List at least 2 pieces of advice Avin and Goodspeed have for scenario planners
have a scenario-oriented mindset but engage in the full-blown process selectively
need leadership buy in
do not only look at current trends to build scenarios
test the logic and consistency of the scenarios,
Avoid overly complex scenario structures
Choose a set of actions that lead you toward a preferred scenario rather than choosing a specific scenario
Blank plans are useful across multiple scenarios, according to Chakraborty
What is robust
Scenario planning originated in these 2 corporations
Rand Corporation and Shell
Plans that are made in multiplicity in order to account for more than one potential future (usually based on key variables)
Name at least two problems in the “Modes of Current Planning Process”
- Overvaluing expertise
- Set time periods
- No constituent participation
The four steps to constructing exploratory scenarios are:
brainstorming and discussing key trends, constraints, and issues
identifying driving forces, categorizing them as assumptions or uncertainties, and rating their degree of uncertainty and impact
selecting the driving forces with the most uncertainty + the highest potential impact
building the scenarios based on the driving forces.
Name 3 of the 5 types of plans included in Avin & Goodpseed’s case studies
What is freight planning, regional transportation plan for the greater Philadelphia (PA) region, Delaware Valley Regional Planning Commission (DVRPC) Connections 2045 plan, comprehensive plan, a comprehensive transportation plan, and a consolidated housing plan, central western communities sector plan
This important element is often missing from exploratory scenarios
Stakeholder values
List 2 complementary actions that could be taken after a hurricane (a local impact)
Future planning, resiliency efforts, policy changes, local education, etc.
Define continuity, multiplicity, or deliberation
Continuity - planning is an iterative process, and planners should continue using planning tools and processes to improve past plans
Multiplicity - Including many voices, envisioning many possible futures, and utilizing many techniques for coping with the world
Deliberation - usually regarding the “process” phase of a plan, scholars focus on how attitudes and choices are shaped and made and how they affect the production of forecasts, scenarios, plans, and projects
Name one specific strength and one specific weakness from the case studies discussed by Avin and Goodspeed
strengths:
- 1 rich scenario narratives
- 2 acknowledge uncertainty, rating scale of robust/contingent
- 3 diverse advisory board created driving forces, quantified and tested these scenarios with models
- 4 strong community engagement, array of impact models used after engagement
-5 multiple stakeholders and rounds of engagement, narrative that represent stakeholders, common values
weaknesses:
- 1 broad narratives and narrowly defined modeling capacities
-2 top-down
-3 some scenarios had general applications - not specific enough
- 4 no leadership buy in
- 5 plan failed to implement
Give an example of an issue involving multiple stakeholders (free write)
(Anything with an identified issue and a list of identified stakeholders)
What city/regional government pioneered the explicit use of scenarios for planning at the metropolitan scale in the early 1990s?
Portland Metro