AI Milestones 2011-2016
The Turing Test & Intelligence
Exponential Predictions
The Kapor-Kurzweil Wager
100

In 2012, Google researchers trained a multilayer neural network on millions of YouTube videos and found a dedicated neuron that had learned to recognize this common household pet.

What is a cat?

100

This is the type of AI philosopher John Searle referred to when he said "the appropriately programmed digital computer does not just simulate having a mind; it literally has a mind"

What is strong AI?

100

According to this principle, identified by Gordon Moore, the number of components on a computer chip doubles approximately every one to two years

What is Moore's Law?

100

This is the number of hours of conversation that each of the three human judges would interview the computer contestant and human foils during the wager's strict Turing test

What is 2?

200

The successes of Deep Learning, such as AlphaGo, is classified as this type of AI, referring to systems that can perform only one narrowly defined task.

What is narrow/weak AI?

200

The fable of a king, a sage, and grains of rice on a chessboard illustrates this type of rapid, explosive progress

What is exponential function/growth/progress?

200

Kapor's argument that a computer cannot attain human-level intelligence without a body that interacts with the world is countered by Kurzweil, who believes this totally realistic environment will suffice by the 2030s

What is virtual reality?

300

This IBM program defeated human champions on television's Jeopardy! game show in 2011.

What is Watson?

300

Among the 9 objections listed by Turing to the prospect of a machine actually thinking, possibly the strongest points to this human mental faculty that machines supposedly don't have and can't ever have.

What is consciousness?

300

Ray Kurzweil, the leading AI optimist, predicts that a computer will pass a properly designed Turing test by this year

What is 2029?

300

Kapor argued that machines would fail to pass the test because they lack this type of learning, which is fundamental to humans and depends on having a physical body

What is experiential learning?