Deductive Reasoning
What is deductive reasoning?
Begin with some specific premises that are true and you must judge whether those premises allow you to draw a particular conclusion based on logic
What is an illusory correlation?
Occurs when people believe that 2 variables are statistically relevant, even though there is no real evidence of this
What is the myside bias?
What type of processing would face recognition fall under?
Type I
What do studies say about confidence intervals?
They tend to be too narrow
The original anchor may be erroneous and adjustments too small
People do not really understand them
What does research show about maximizers?
They tended to experience more regret following choice
Tended to experience more depressive symptoms
What is the difference between conditional reasoning and a syllogism
Conditional reasoning is an "if...then..." statement that is either valid or invalid
A syllogism are 2 statements that we must assume are true plus a conclusions. These can either be valid, invalid, or indeterminate
What factors influence the availability heuristic?
(1) recency
(2) familiarity
(3) recognition
What is the outcome of our decision influenced by according to the framing effect?
Background context of the choice
The way the question is worded
What conditional reasoning tasks result in a valid response?
Affirming the antecedent and denying the consequent
What factors influence representative heuristic?
(1) sample size
(2) base rate
(3) conjunction rule
How can we reduce overconfidence?
By using the crystal ball technique
Imagine a crystal ball saying that your hypothesis is wrong, we are then forced to look for alternative explanations for outcome
When we are given a choice, we are likely to affirm the antecedent. Which bias is this known as?
Confirmation bias
Compare the representativeness and availability heuristics?
If the problem is based on judgement about similarity, it is the representativeness heuristic
If the problem requires you to remember examples, if is an availability heuristic
Name 3 reasons for overconfidence.
(1) unaware that our knowledge is based on uncertain assumptions from unreliable sources
(2) examples that confirm our hypothesis are readily available
(3) difficulty recalling other possible hypothesis
(4)even is we manage to recall other hypothesis, we do not treat them seriously
(5) researchers do not education public about overconfidence problem