The Heuristics "Big Three"
This heuristic involves judging the likelihood of an event based on how easily examples come to mind.
What is the Availability Heuristic?
A logical argument consisting of two premises and a conclusion, such as "All psychologists are humans; Gemini is a psychologist; therefore Gemini is human."
What is a Syllogism?
The tendency to search for information that supports our existing beliefs while ignoring contradictory evidence.
What is Confirmation Bias?
This effect describes how the way a choice is worded ("90% fat-free" vs. "10% fat") can change a person's decision.
What is the Framing Effect?
According to Chapter 12, this group of people is more likely to use "Type 2" processing when solving problems in their specific field of study.
Who are Experts?
This mental shortcut leads us to ignore statistical base rates in favor of how much a description matches a stereotype.
What is the Representativeness Heuristic?
This type of processing is slow, deliberate, and analytical, as opposed to the fast, automatic Type 1 processing.
What is Type 2 Processing?
The feeling that "I knew it all along" after an event has already occurred.
What is Hindsight Bias?
A bias where people's confidence in their own judgments is consistently higher than their actual accuracy.
What is Overconfidence?
If you are afraid to fly after seeing a movie about a plane crash, you are likely being influenced by this heuristic.
What is Availability?
This effect occurs when an initial, often arbitrary value influences our final estimate of a quantity.
What is the Anchoring and Adjustment Heuristic?
This specific error occurs when people believe that the probability of two events occurring together is greater than the probability of either event occurring alone.
What is the Conjunction Fallacy?
The tendency to continue investing in a project or decision because of previous resources spent, even if the current costs outweigh the benefits.
What is the Sunk-Cost Fallacy?
This specific type of overconfidence involves underestimating the time or money needed to complete a project.
What is the Planning Fallacy?
When we assume that a small sample of data will be representative of the entire population, we are following this "law."
What is the Law of Small Numbers?