Public Opinion
Sample
A small subset of individuals drawn from a population with which public opinion researchers seek to estimate the aggregate opinion of the population
Double-barred question
question-wording error in which the survey researchers ask respondents a question about two or more individual issues but only allow them to give one answer
What is a constituent?
The people who vote for representatives are the ones who should exercise judgment over questions of public policy
Name one agent of socialization
Family, school, religion, peers, media, local culture
Who is running for president?
What is considered a matter of public concern?
Anything relevant to government, politics, and public policy.
Representative samples reflect diversity of opinion while demographically representative represents diversity of identity within the sample.
Bandwagon Effect
a phenomenon in which individuals decide to support a cause or candidate simply because polls demonstrate the popularity of the cause or candidate
What is partisan-motivated reasoning?
the psychological process of forming opinions out of partisan bias rather than an effort to be fair minded or accurate
Tim Walz is the governor of...
Minnesota
Summary statistics
Used to simplify communication about the range of positions that the public holds
What are the three necessary conditions for measuring public opinion?
1. Asking Questions in a Way That Accurately Measures the Opinions of a Sample
2. Taking a Sample That is Representative of the Population from Which it is Drawn
3. Making Sure a Sample Size is Sufficiently Large
Name two ways to interpret public opinion.
1. Consider the Reputation and Possible Motives of the Organization Conducting the Poll
2. Examine Question Wording
3. Check the Target Population and Sampling Method
4. Assess the Sample Size and Margin of Error
5. Compare Across Polls and Look at Poll Aggregators
6. Be Realistic in Your Expectations
What is the primacy principle?
the idea that early socialization creates a base of values, attitudes, and beliefs that tend to be quite stable, and that this early learning shapes and conditions all future learning
Is Georgia a red or blue state?
Georgia is considered purple because we elected two Democratic senators and Joe Biden in 2020 after previously swinging more right in the past.
Population
The group whose aggregate opinion a public opinion researcher seeks to know
Is probability or non-probability sampling more popular among public opinion researchers?
Probability sampling because non-probability sampling is more reliant on human judgment and therefore subject to human error.
Difference between direct democracy and representative democracy
In a direct democracy, all people directly participate. In a representative democracy, people vote on someone to represent their interests.
What is the funnel of causality?
The idea is that over the course of a lifetime, the factors that influence us become fewer in number and more limited in impact—just as space becomes more limited as material moves from the wide end of a funnel toward the narrow end
Name of Kamala's TikTok account
KalamaHQ
How did public opinion polls start?
The modern scientific study of public opinion got its start in the 1936 Presidential election when a man named George Gallup accurately predicted Franklin Delano Roosevelt’s landslide victory over Alfred Landon.
What is the margin of error for a sample size of 2,500?
2%
Name a predisposition that influences public opionion?
- levels of trust in government
- support for the democratic process
-beliefs in the integrity and objectivity of journalists and the news media
Name one independent candidate (still eligible if they've dropped out of the race).
RFK
Jill Stein
Cornel West
Chase Oliver