Too Much Info
You are buying new headphones on Amazon. The ones you were thinking of buying have 100 perfect 5-Star reviews, 40 4-Star reviews, and 20 1-Star reviews. Should you buy these headphones?
(Answer: Yes. According to the negativity bias, things of a more negative nature have a greater effect on one's psychological state and processes than neutral or positive things, so you might be inclined to say “no” based on the 20 negative reviews. But 140 positive reviews is far greater than 20 negative reviews).
Masked-man Fallacy:
You know who Bob is.
You do not know who the masked man is.
Can the masked man be Bob?
(Answer: Yes. Bob could be the masked man, but because the brain sees two different people with different traits, it concludes that they cannot be the same.)
You can either have $68 right now, or $100 in twelve months. What does the average person do?
68$ Now. The tendency of people to want things now rather than later, as the desired result in the future is perceived as less valuable than one in the present.
You’ve paid $9 for a movie. After about 30 minutes, you realize that you absolutely hate the movie, but you’ve already spent money on the ticket. Does the average person stick it out, or do they leave?
(Answer: The average person stays. Despite not liking the movie, most people would stay because they’ve paid for it already, and even if there is a small chance of success or enjoyment, we stick it out.)
You are late to school and you notice that there is a line because everyone is entering through the door on the right side. The left door is open, but no one is using it. Should you try the unused door on the left?
(Answer: Yes! People are like sheep, they follow the masses. We want to do what everyone else does, or have what the majority has).
In/Out Group Bias:
Which is the best school?
Burlington High
CVU
Rice
Don’t Know
(Answer: D. Don’t Know. Because the students of Rice aren’t “with us,” we are biased towards them. We judge them and think less of them. They’re our rivals, but only because they don’t go to BHS.)
Lake Wobegone effect:
How would you rate your ability at not falling for cognitive biases in your own life?
8-10: Fantastic. I ain’t no fool!
5-7: Pretty Good. I only occasionally think irrationally.
1-4: Not Great. I generally just let my brain do it’s thing.
(Answer: C. 1-4 Not Great. According to the Lake Wobegone effect, it’s a natural human tendency to overestimate one's capabilities.)
After purchasing your movie ticket you decide to buy some popcorn. The theatre offers three sizes: the small bucket for $3, a medium bucket for $6, and a large bucket for $7. Which of these sizes is there to trick you?
Small
Medium
Large
Small & Medium
(Answer: The Medium Bucket. The medium bucket is the decoy, and because of it, most consumers will buy the large bucket.)
You’ve purchased a car with an all new, state-of-the-art, anti-locking braking system (ABS). Will the average person:
Drive slower
Drive faster
Drive like they always do
(Answer: B. Drive Faster. Studies conducted in Germany, Canada, and Denmark concluded that people are more likely to drive faster and more recklessly, with the improvement of ABS, leading to more accidents. The improved ABS did nothing to decrease accidents.)
Imagine you are a Republican and you see that a Democrat has posted that President Trump was born in Canada. You send several articles from unbiased sites such as the AP and even find a certified copy of Trump’s birth certificate that proves beyond any reasonable doubt that he was born in New York City. What is the most likely way the Democrat would reply to these new facts?
“OMG, I was wrong!”
“Hmm...I got a bad source maybe.”
“I stand by my original statement.”
“This proves I’m even more right!”
(Answer: D. According to the backfire effect, when a person is given evidence against their beliefs, people can reject the evidence and believe even more strongly.)
Framing effect
Which do most people prefer?
Meat labeled “75% lean” or
Meat labeled “Only 25% fat”?
(Answer: 75% Lean. According to the framing effect, people react to a particular choice in different ways depending on how it is presented.)
Gambler’s Fallacy:
You’re at a roulette table, and the ball has landed on black 20 times in a row. On the 21st spin, what color gives you the best chance to win?
Red
Black
Either one
(Answer: C. Either one. In 1913 at the Monte Carlo Casino, the ball fell on the black of the roulette wheel 26 times in a row and gamblers lost millions betting against the black, thinking mistakenly that the next ball is more likely to land on red, when in fact the odds are the same as they always were – 50:50.
You are an executive at Smuckers (the Jelly/Jam Division). You have to decide between two plans:
Create 24 different types of jams to entice every possible jelly. OR
Pick the best 6 jams so as to not overwhelm the customers. Which do you choose?
(Answer: Pick 6. Choice Overload is a cognitive process in which people have a difficult time making a decision when faced with many options. Too many choices might cause people to delay making decisions or avoid making them altogether. )
You remember middle school as “way better” than high school, even though you complained about it all the time when you were there. Was it way better?
Probably not. This is rosy retrospection—we tend to remember the past as better than it actually was and forget the negative parts.
You are buying a pair of Air Jordan’s from your buddy that retail for around 200 bucks. He’s not sure what he is willing to sell them for, so you say, “I’ll give you 100 dollars.” According to the anchoring bias, is this a good idea?
(Answer: Yes. People have a tendency to rely too heavily on the first piece of information offered (the “anchor”) when making decisions, so when you start out with 100 dollars, it’s likely that your buddy will ask for something in that range, thereby getting you a deal.)
If you wanted to appear more attractive to others, which would be a better picture to put on your profile page.
A picture of you with your friends.
The same picture of you as before, but close up, with all of your friends cropped out.
(Answer: According to the Cheerleader Effect, people think individuals are more attractive when they are in a group.)
Dunning-Kruger Effect:
Less than 10% of Americans are millionaires. A nationwide survey asked Americans if they thought they would become a millionaire within the next 10 years. What percentage thought that they would “very likely” become a millionaire?
4 %
13%
21%
44%
(Answer: 21%. This is a cognitive bias in which people who are ignorant or unskilled in a given domain tend to believe they are much more competent than they are.)
You have won the Chipolte Burrito Competition!
Would the average person rather have:
9 Thousand Burritos with 100% Certainty.
10 Thousand Burritos with 95% Certainty.
(Answer: B would get you the most food, but most people choose A. Our brains overweigh outcomes that are certain over ones that are merely possible).
You go to a theme park and have fun all day, but the last ride breaks down and you have to wait an hour.
Was the day “bad” or “good”?
The day was still mostly good, but it may feel worse because of the peak-end rule. We tend to remember experiences based on the most intense moment and the ending, not the whole experience.
You are selling your car. Should you set a price or say “make me an offer?” Why?
(Answer: You should set the price. The anchoring bias says we have a tendency to rely too heavily on the first piece of information offered (the “anchor”) when making decisions. Set the price high and the negotiation will more likely stay high).
Tommy is deciding between becoming a police officer or a logger. Tommy decides to be a logger because there have been a lot of stories on TV in the last few years about police being shot. Is Tommy’s decision biased?
(Answer: Yes. Statistically, loggers are more likely to die on the job than cops. People tend to heavily weigh their judgments toward more recent information, making new opinions biased toward the latest news.)
Confirmation Bias
Stephen Colbert is a liberal Democrat that had a show where he acted like a conservative Republican in order to make fun of Republicans. He said things like, “If our Founding Fathers wanted us to care about the rest of the world, they wouldn't have declared their independence from it.” Did conservative Republicans hate/not watch the show or like/watch the show?
(Answer: They liked/watched the show because, due to confirmation bias, people are biased towards looking for evidence that supports their beliefs. One study has shown that people who don’t agree with Colbert don’t get that he’s being sarcastic, they think he really means it (LaMarre, 2009). The beauty is that both liberals and conservatives get what they want: their viewpoints confirmed.)
A person who just bought the safest helmet for skiing is more or less likely to go fast?
You are more likely to take risks. This is called risk compensation—when people feel safer, they often behave more dangerously without realizing it.
You get 10 comments on your post—9 are positive, 1 is negative. Should you spend more time thinking about the negative review than the positive ones?
No, it shouldn’t matter more—but it feels like it does because of negativity bias. Our brains pay more attention to negative information because it feels more important or threatening.
A hoodie is originally priced at $120, but it’s “on sale” for $60. Are you getting a good deal?
No. It feels like a good deal because of anchoring bias—your brain compares $60 to the original $120, not to what the hoodie is actually worth.