Inductive Reasoning
This form of reasoning involves drawing general conclusions from specific observations.
What is inductive reasoning?
Judging the probability of an event based on how easily it comes to mind is known as this heuristic.
What is the availability heuristic?
Aristotle introduced this basic structure of deductive logic.
What is a syllogism?
This term describes people avoiding risk to prevent expected negative emotions.
What is risk aversion?
This system of thinking is fast, automatic, and intuitive.
What is System 1?
When your conclusion is probably but not definitely true, you are using this kind of argument.
What is a strong inductive argument?
Believing someone is a librarian based on stereotypes rather than base rates is an example of this heuristic.
What is the representativeness heuristic?
This rule says the probability of two events occurring together cannot be higher than either one alone.
What is the conjunction rule?
This refers to the discrepancy between how people think they’ll feel and how they actually feel after a decision outcome.
What is affective forecasting error?
This system handles slower, logical, and conscious decision-making.
What is System 2?
The three key factors that determine inductive argument strength are these.
What are representativeness, number of observations, and quality of evidence?
Believing two events are related when they aren’t reflects this cognitive error.
What is an illusory correlation?
This form of syllogism uses “If... then” structures and includes types like modus ponens and modus tollens.
What is a conditional syllogism?
These emotions influence decisions even when unrelated to the task, like mood or music.
What are incidental emotions?
This Nobel Prize-winning psychologist developed the dual-system theory in Thinking, Fast and Slow.
Who is Daniel Kahneman?
Believing all crows are black after seeing black crows in different cities is an example of this reasoning flaw.
What is overgeneralization in inductive reasoning?
The bias where individuals favor information that confirms their beliefs is called this.
What is confirmation bias?
This approach to reasoning involves constructing internal visual representations to evaluate logic.
What is the mental model approach?
This game illustrates how people reject unfair offers, prioritizing emotion over monetary gain.
What is the ultimatum game?
Real-world versions of abstract problems are easier because they activate these types of schemas.
Real-world versions of abstract problems are easier because they activate these types of schemas.
The NBA draft story of Marc Gasol illustrates how this reasoning method can lead to faulty judgments based on stereotypes.
What is inductive reasoning based on appearance bias?
Assuming small sample sizes are representative of a population violates this statistical principle.
What is the law of large numbers?
In the Wason Four-Card Problem, people fail by choosing cards that confirm rather than falsify the rule, violating this principle.
What is the falsification principle?
This technique temporarily disables parts of the brain to study decision-making behavior.
What is transcranial magnetic stimulation (TMS)?
This interdisciplinary field studies brain activity during economic decision-making.
What is neuroeconomics?