Public Opinion and IR
Fundamental public opinion is defined as
What is public opinion that does not change quickly
These foreign policy topics are typically most salient to the public
What are
-Immigration
-Gas Prices
-Troop Deployment
This is the standard theoretical framework for foreign policy decision-making
What is rational actor
Name (and define) two types of conflict
What are:
-Interstate
-Intrastate
-Internationalized Intrastate
-Extrasystemic
Changes in American's opinions about tariffs from day to day is an example of this type of public opinion
What is short term public opinion
The gender gap in foreign policy is most clear in these two areas
What are men are more likely to support use of ground troops whereas women are more likely to support protectionist trade policy
Self-Determination and Irredentism are two goals of this type of substate actor that affect foreign policy decisions
What are ethnic groups
Standard operating procedures drive decision making in this theory
What is organizational process
This is the most common reason why states go to war
What is to gain territory?
US defense of Israel against Arab states is this type of deterrence for this type of state
What is general deterrence to protect a protege state
Diversionary theory predicts that leaders will use diversionary tactics (e.g. force) to divert attention when these things are domestic problems
What are:
-Low/declining public support
-Poor economic performance
These are the three key actors in the military industrial complex.
What are Congress, Military Institutions, and Defense Contractors
This scenario most closely resembles this type of decision making: You're at a casino. You want to make sure that you at least break even. In your first round of roulette, you win $10. Instead of leaving, you decide to put it all on red, even though this is a risky choice.
What is Prospect Theory
According to the Balance of Power Theory, this scenario will most like end in this: Two regional powers have had roughly the same GDP, military expenditures, and CINC scores for about a decade. Suddenly, State A experiences a surge in GDP and military expenditures.
What is war initiated by State A
This is the last standing Arms Control agreement between the US and Russia
Increased public support for Thatcher's policies in the UK and Galtieri in Argentina during the Falklands War is an example of what phenomena?
What is Rally 'Round the Flag?
Individuals are non-rational actors. One of the ways this manifests is trying to seek cognitive consistency. This means that
What is individuals will only consider facts that coincide with what you already believe; things that don’t fit into with worldview are not considered
(e.g. John Dulles viewing Russian cooperation as a trick)
Sudan, South Sudan, and Ethiopia are all embroiled in internal conflict. Their neighbor, Eritrea, is then at greater risk of this
What is experiencing conflict themselves
Dyadic, increasing arms, coupled, and during peace times are all themes in arms race definitions. This key theme is missing
What is quickly building up arms?
In Dr. Strangelove, only one person having the code to the Doomsday weapon and then killing himself is an example of this tactic of deterrence
What is brinksmanship/ "pre-committing" to a strategy
Name two of three ways that the government influences public opinion
What are:
-Propaganda
-Media manipulation
-limit access to information
National interest (and thereby foreign policy) is determined by (give me a general idea)
What is the aggregation of substate actors' interests and priorities
Leaders and decisionmakers are the key actors in these three theories
What are perceptions/misperceptions, rational actor, and prospect theory
Explain how the game of Chicken is relevant to deterrence theory
Chicken the game - two players are driving at each other and trying to make the other player swerve. If both swerve, both are embarrassed; if both drive, both die; if one swerves and the other doesn't, the driver wins
Deterrence - states are trying to make each other back down in an escalating situation. The outcomes are similar to that of chicken. Each state wants to ensure they do not backdown
Describe what the Nash Equilibria is:
Bonus 100 points: This is the Nash equilibria in an arms race Prisoner's Dilemma scenario
What is neither player can improve outcomes by changing their strategy
Bonus: What is to always arm
If states do not arm, then they will end up in a scenario where they do not have arms but opponents do.