Cognitive Biases
A student only looks for articles that support what they already believe and ignores evidence against it.
A. Availability heuristic
B. Confirmation bias
C. Self-serving bias
D. Decoy effect
B. Confirmation bias
Which best defines a valid deductive argument?
A. All premises and the conclusion are true
B. The conclusion sounds reasonable
C. It is impossible for all premises to be true and the conclusion false
D. The conclusion is probably true
Answer: C
Which form of reasoning uses past observations to make a prediction about future or unobserved cases?
A. Deductive
B. Inductive
C. Abductive
D. Disjunctive
B. Inductive
When confronted with a new claim, which is not one of the three basic responses discussed in the notes?
A. Believe it
B. Disbelieve it
C. Reserve judgment
D. Assume it is partly true
D. Assume it is partly true
A manufactured scientific controversy occurs when:
A. Scientists genuinely disagree about an unresolved issue
B. A theory is revised because of new evidence
C. The public is given the impression of major scientific disagreement where strong consensus actually exists
D. Scientists debate competing explanations
Answer: C
After hearing several dramatic stories about shark attacks, someone begins to think shark attacks are extremely common.
A. Availability heuristic
B. Bandwagon effect
C. Dunning-Kruger effect
D. Self-serving bias
A. Availability heuristic
Which statement about validity is correct?
A. A valid argument must have true premises
B. A valid argument must have a true conclusion
C. A valid argument may contain false premises
D. An argument with a false conclusion is always invalid
C. A valid argument may contain false premises
You see a puddle, an overturned cup, and water dripping from it. You conclude that the cup probably spilled.
A. Deductive reasoning
B. Inductive reasoning
C. Abductive reasoning
D. Appeal to ignorance
C. Abductive reasoning
According to W. K. Clifford, what should we do if we do not yet have enough evidence for a claim?
A. Believe it until disproven
B. Disbelieve it automatically
C. Suspend judgment
D. Follow the majority opinion
C. Suspend judgment
Which is listed as a strategy for creating the appearance of controversy?
A. Developing stronger alternative theories
B. Magnifying uncertainty
C. Replicating experiments
D. Increasing peer review
B. Magnifying uncertainty
A person with very little knowledge about a topic believes they are better at judging the issue than trained experts.
A. Overconfidence only
B. Self-serving bias
C. Dunning-Kruger effect
D. Confirmation bias
C. Dunning-Kruger effect
Consider:
If someone is a veterinarian, then they completed professional school.
Taylor completed professional school.
Therefore, Taylor is a veterinarian.
This argument is:
A. Valid because both premises could be true
B. Invalid because Taylor could have completed a different type of professional school
C. Valid because veterinarians attend professional school
D. Invalid because the first premise is false
Answer: B
“I asked five students whether they liked the new policy. Four disliked it. Therefore, almost all students at the university dislike it.”
A. False cause
B. Hasty generalization
C. Appeal to motives
D. Red herring
B. Hasty generalization
Clifford’s shipowner believes his ship is safe without adequate evidence. The ship reaches its destination safely. According to Clifford:
A. The shipowner did nothing wrong because no one was harmed
B. The shipowner was still wrong to form the belief irresponsibly
C. The belief became justified because it turned out true
D. The shipowner should only be blamed if the ship sank
Answer: B
Which situation is the strongest warning sign of a potentially manufactured controversy?
A. Scientists publish competing theories in peer-reviewed journals
B. A group repeatedly attacks a widely accepted theory but offers no well-developed alternative
C. Researchers revise a theory after new evidence
D. Several experts disagree about a new finding
Answer: B
Explain the difference between confirmation bias and the availability heuristic. Give one original example of each.
Confirmation bias is the tendency to favor evidence that supports an existing belief.
Availability heuristic is the tendency to judge likelihood based on how easily examples come to mind.
Example of confirmation bias: Someone who believes a diet works only reads positive testimonials.
Example of availability: Someone sees several news stories about house fires and begins to think house fires are extremely common.
Explain the “make up a story” or counterexample method for determining whether a deductive argument is valid.
Try to imagine any possible situation where all of the premises are true while the conclusion is false.
If such a case is possible, the argument is invalid.
If no such case is possible, the argument is valid.
Explain why correlation does not automatically establish causation. Give at least two alternative explanations for a correlation between A and B.
A correlation only shows that A and B vary together.
Alternative explanations include:
Why might disagreement with an expert matter more than disagreement with a random person?
An expert may have more knowledge, training, experience, access to evidence, and ability to evaluate the question.
Give three warning signs that a supposed scientific controversy may be manufactured.
A student gets an A on one exam and says, “I’m naturally smart.” They later get a D and say, “The professor wrote a terrible test.”
Identify the bias and explain what feature of the reasoning gives it away.
Self-serving bias.
Why: The student attributes success internally to personal ability but failure externally to circumstances.
Evaluate:
All glippers are torps.
Rena is a glipper.
Therefore, Rena is a torp.
Is this valid?
Answer: Yes, it is valid. Validity depends on logical form, not the subject matter.
Person A says:
“We should reduce the amount of homework slightly.”
Person B responds:
“So you think students should never have homework.”
Identify the fallacy and explain why.
Straw man.
Explain why:
“Most experts agree that X”
is not automatically the same reasoning as:
“Most people believe X, therefore X is true.”
The second can be an appeal to the masses because popularity itself is being treated as evidence.
Expert agreement may be relevant because experts possess appropriate knowledge and qualifications to evaluate the issue.
A group argues:
“Scientists admit their theories could always be revised, so our unsupported alternative should be treated as equally plausible.”
Explain at least two problems with this reasoning.
Possible responses include:
Appeal to possibility:
A claim being possible does not mean it is probable or equally supported.
Appeal to ignorance:
The inability to prove an alternative impossible does not establish that the alternative is true.
Created controversy:
Presenting an unsupported position as though it has equal scientific standing may create a false appearance of genuine scientific disagreement.
Belief and evidence:
Beliefs should track the evidence available, not merely the fact that another possibility can be imagined.