Risky Business
Prospect theory explains otherwise puzzling behavior in terms of humans feeling this X more keenly than this Y.
What are losses (X) and gains (Y)?
Organizational culture shapes and internalizes these regular routines and habits that can produce unreflective thinking.
What are SOPs (standard operating procedures)?
The is the term for the organization of beliefs related to the political arena.
What is operational code?
This is the level of analysis used when studying a leader's decision-making.
What is the individual level/1st level?
This is the full name of the current president of Turkey (pronunciation counts).
What is Recep Tayyip Erdoğan?
Frames shape how individuals assess their losses or gains based on this.
What is a reference point?
Kimberly Marten points to the lingering power of this organization in explaining its country's foreign policy.
What is the KGB?
Janice Gross Stein points to this form of learning in explaining Soviet Premier Gorbachev's belief shift on the Soviet security problem.
What is trial and error/motivated learning?
Conceptual complexity, measured by at-a-distance analysis of spontaneous remarks, is linked to leaders' sophisticated use of these in FPDM.
What are analogies?
This is the event at which then-PM Erdoğan demonstrated high emotion in excoriating Israeli President Shimon Peres for Palestinian deaths before storming off stage and declaring Turkey done with the event.
What is the 2009 Davos World Economic Forum?
This phenomenon, produced upon acquiring something, explains why humans would charge more to part with something than they would pay to purchase it.
What is the endowment effect?
McNeal points to organizational culture in explaining the objections of armed service officers to the George W. Bush administration's attempts to do this.
What is politicize the military justice process/uphold the Military Commissions Act?
This classification from Saunders describes a leader who, for example, thinks a communist authoritarian regime is to blame for a state's threatening actions and so pursues a transformative intervention.
What is internally focused?
In thinking about leadership style, this is the term for an individual who feels unbound by treaty commitments or public opinion in considering FP options.
What is constraint challenger?
This is the armed group whose US support in the fight against ISIS Turkey objected to on the grounds it is a terrorist organization.
What is the People's Protection Units/YPG (Syrian Kurdish militia - not just SDF)?
Barbara Farnham uses prospect theory to explain President Roosevelt's otherwise puzzling decision to intervene in the Munich crisis by pointing to this shift.
What is an emotional frame shift (into Chamberlain's/Europe's Ingroup)
In describing the homogeneity of personnel in the CIA that may have led to suboptimal intelligence analysis around 9/11, this catchy phrase is often used.
What is Yale Pale Male?
The flexibility of Gorbachev's beliefs, allowing a rethinking of the Soviet security problem, resulted from his status as an X thinker.
What is "uncommitted" thinker?
Using LTA, Dyson argues Margaret Thatcher exhibited low conceptual complexity and "black-and-white" thinking in her decision-making in this conflict.
What is the Falklands War?
Turkey's application to X organization was rejected in 1950 until Turkish troops contributed effectively to Y conflict
What are NATO and the Korean War?
This is one factor prospect theory points to in explaining President Carter's risky decision to authorize a hostage rescue operation.
What are domain of losses factors (could be loss of security for US citizens, loss of US reputation, dwindling numbers in polls, intra-party status decline)?
These are two of the three general problems Amy Zegart highlights in explaining the FBI's intelligence failure around 9/11.
What are structural deficiencies, personal incentives, cultural pathologies
These are two of three mechanisms Jonathan Renshon points to in explaining how beliefs can change (George W. Bush case).
What are role change, learning, and exogenous shock?
Leaders whose style tends to be goal-driven are less worried about this, opposite, focus of coordination.
What is the decision process (or relationship)?
This is the number of times Prof. Hintz has referenced Turkey in class discussions this term.
What is NOT NEARLY ENOUGH?!!!!