Desperate Housewives of the ASA
The school of thought claiming that probability comes from forming a collection of similar events
What is frequentist statistics?
If the premises of the statement are true, the conclusion must be true. (If all trees are green, this tree is green)
What is deductive reasoning?
This is the method by which we come up with a hypothesis and look for evidence to prove it wrong
What is hypothesis testing?
This is what Fisher proposed you do when you find a p-value less than 0.05.
What is continue to do research?
What is a prior?
The school of thought claiming that probability comes from previous knowledge and current evidence
What is Bayesian statisitcs?
The person who wrote about forming a collective of similar studies and testing how far the current data are away from that collective of studies?
Who is Fisher?
This is what you do when your p-value is less than the pre-defined threshold.
What is rejecting the null hypothesis?
This analysis mistake can break down the examination of many outcomes using freqentist methods, but Bayes statistics are unaffected.
What is multiple testing?
The school of thought claiming that probability comes from logical deductions of physical properties
What is logical statistics?
This is the type of reasoning that hypothesis testing primarily relies on.
What is inductive reasoning?
This is the probability of a positive result being a false positive.
What is type I error/alpha?
Frequentist statistics does use prior knowledge when doing this.
What is forming the collective?
This is the most likely value of the alternative hypothesis when performing an analysis with Bayesian statistics.
What is the observed value?
This is an infinite group of occurrences of a random event
What is a collective?
These are the attributes we look for when deciding what the "best explanation" is.
What is an explanation that is simple and parsimonious?
The ASA rejected the idea of making decisions solely based on this when working with p-values.
What is a threshold?
One problem with Frequentist probability is the invocation of this where a truth about the collective applies to the individual.
What is the ecological falacy?
Another name for a Bayes Factor, describing the relative probability of the data under two hypotheses.
What is a likelihood ratio?
This principle states that if you don't know how likely a number of events are, you can assume they're equally likely
What is the principle of indifference?
We make this assumption so that we can apply principles we have learned in the past to things in the present.
What is the uniformity of nature assumption?
The ASA made it clear that the p-value does not measure this.
What is the effect size?
Using a smaller collective that is more representative but contains fewer data points OR a large collective that is less representative but is more robust is an example of what?
What is the bias-variance tradeoff?
The results under the null hypothesis are half as likely as under the alternative hypothesis.
What is a Bayes Factor of 0.5?