Representativeness
When is a sample representative?
How do we use the availability heuristic.
We estimate frequency or probability in terms of how easily we think of relevant examples of something.
What is another name for the anchoring and adjustment heuristic?
The anchoring effect.
How do we use the representativeness heuristic?
We judge that a sample is likely if it represents the population from which it was drawn.
Which two factors hinder judgment accuracy?
Recency and familiarity hinder judgment accuracy.
How do we use the anchoring and adjustment heuristic?
We establish an anchor, and then we make adjustments, based on other information.
Which two forms of statistical evidence do people often ignore when using the representativeness heuristic?
People often ignore sample size and base rate.
What is recency?
People judge recent items to be more likely than they really are.
What is the problem with the anchoring and adjustment heuristic?
What is the small sample fallacy?
People assume that a small sample will be representative of the population from which it was selected. Which is not alway true.
What is familiarity?
How easily we can recall something from memory.
When is another instance where people use the anchoring and adjustment heuristic?
When people estimate confidence intervals.
What is the base rate fallacy?
People often emphasize representativeness and ignore important information about base rate.
Which type of availability heuristic often leads to the correct choice?
The recognition heuristic.
What type of problem do people often have when using the anchoring and adjustment heuristic to estimate confidence intervals?
People usually create confidence intervals that are too narrow.