Assumptions
Palmistry—the art of understanding an individual's present personality and predicting his or her future state through the study of the shape, size, and lines of the hands—is an unscientific technique. In a study, most palmists' assertions about the present financial status of the individuals in the sample population were found to be mere intelligent guesses.
Which one of the following is an assumption necessary to the argument?
A: Individuals with the same financial status usually do not have a similar personality.
B: There is a stable correlation between an individual's personality and his or her financial status.
C: Palmistry is an effective means of predicting how the personalities of individuals evolve over the long term.
D: There are numerous other methods for understanding the personality of an individual that are more precise than palmistry.
E: The financial future of a person is one of the most important concerns that palmists address.
A: Individuals with the same financial status usually do not have a similar personality.
A high school football coach has made public comments criticizing the decision by the football coaching staff of the local university to not play their star quarterback. However, we should not listen to the high school coach’s criticism. His high school football team has not won a game in several seasons.
The flawed reasoning above most closely resembles which of the following arguments?
a: We should not heed the weather channel's warnings. They have failed to correctly predict the past twenty rainy days.
b: We should not listen to this art critic's negative comments because it is well known that the art critic is a mediocre artist.
c: We should not listen to the neurobiologist’s predictions about the future state of the economy because he has no formal training in economics.
d: We should not listen to the car salesperson because she has an incentive to ignore negative features of the car in order to make commission off of a sale.
e: It is likely that the scholar plagiarized this paper because she has been known to plagiarize in the past.
We should not listen to the car salesperson because she has an incentive to ignore negative features of the car in order to make commission off of a sale.
It is immoral for a government to enter a war unless its own citizens have been attacked. To avoid taking immoral action, governments should receive international approval before entering a war in another country, no matter the cost.
Which of the following, if true, provides the most support for the argument?
A: Some governments have caused international turmoil by entering wars without international approval
B: There is usually international approval for a government that goes to war after its citizens are attacked
C: A government will not receive international approval to join a war when its citizens have not been attacked
D: Governments increase casualties by joining wars in other countries
E: Governments often save lives by entering wars in other countries
C: A government will not receive international approval to join a war when its citizens have not been attacked
Doctor: A major study found no causal link between having received an MMR vaccine and having autism, but the study is flawed. The study looked at 500 people who had received an MMR vaccine. Because autism occurs in less than 1% of the population, researchers would need to include many more than 500 people in a study to detect a meaningful increase in the rate of autism.
Which of the following most accurately expresses the main conclusion of the doctor's argument?
a: Researchers cannot determine whether a given disorder is causally linked to a procedure if the base rate for the disorder is less than 1%.
b: The major study cited does not reach a conclusion as to whether autism results from the MMR vaccine.
c: Medical professionals should conduct more research into the MMR vaccine to determine whether it is causally linked with autism.
d: A major study that discovered no causal relationship between the MMR vaccine and autism is unreliable.
e: Contrary to the findings of a major study, there is reason to believe that the MMR vaccine causes autism.
A major study that discovered no causal relationship between the MMR vaccine and autism is unreliable.
It has been scientifically established that all dogs bark. As a result, any animal that barks is a dog. So, if a person hears an animal bark, that person can safely conclude that the animal is a dog.
Which of the following arguments most closely parallels the flawed reasoning above?
A: All high interest debt should be avoided. Debt that is not high interest need not be avoided. So, people should prefer low interest debt.
B: Only high interest debt is debt that should be avoided. Debt that is not high interest should not be avoided.
C: High interest debt should sometimes be avoided. As a result, some debt that should be avoided is high interest debt. So, a person can safely conclude that high interest debt should be avoided.
D: If all high interest debt should be avoided, and if some debt is high interest, then some debt should be avoided.
E: All debt that should be avoided is high interest debt because all high interest debt should be avoided. Debt that should be avoided must be high interest debt.
E: All debt that should be avoided is high interest debt because all high interest debt should be avoided. Debt that should be avoided must be high interest debt.
The print circulation of The World Tribune has shown a 40 percent decline in the past two years. However, the traffic on the newspaper's website has increased by 30 percent during the same period. The website contains many news sections and blogs that are not featured in the print newspaper but are the most-read pages of the website. Therefore, to maintain its profits, the newspaper has decided to discontinue its still-profitable print edition and to introduce more content on the website that is similar to the exclusive content on the most read pages of the website.
Which one of the following is an assumption on which the decision of The World Tribune depends?
A: The print circulation of the newspaper would not have declined further in the near future.
B: To access the content on the newspaper's website, the readers of the website will be willing to pay a monthly subscription fees that is equal to the revenue that the print edition of the newspaper earned per reader each month.
C: The print circulation of the newspaper declined in the past two years because the newspaper's website offered more interesting content.
D:The revenue earned from increased website traffic will not be less than the revenue lost by discontinuing the print edition.
E: Introducing more content similar to the exclusive content on the most read pages of the website will increase the newspaper's website traffic further.
E: Introducing more content similar to the exclusive content on the most read pages of the website will increase the newspaper's website traffic further.
Common perceptions aside, people are safer from crime in urban areas than in rural areas. The reason for this is that there are more people available to prevent crimes in urban areas and police can respond more quickly than in rural areas. For instance, a person who yells for help after being robbed is more likely to be heard in an urban area. It is also likely that a police officer will arrive more quickly because there are more of them in urban areas.
Which of the following, if true, most strengthens the argument?
A: On average, police respond to urban crime scenes twice as fast as rural crime scenes
B: Crimes in rural areas tend to be less dangerous than in urban areas, although the overall number of crimes is comparable
C: People in urban areas are less likely to respond to a yell for help than in rural areas
D: Crime rates are similar in both urban and rural areas
E: A higher percentage of crimes take place on the streets in urban areas than in rural areas
A: On average, police respond to urban crime scenes twice as fast as rural crime scenes
While coffee does stain teeth, most claims that coffee has ill-effects are unfounded. There is even some evidence of health benefits. The situation may be different when the arguments relate to people who consume more than a moderate amount of coffee.
Which of the following conclusions most logically follows from the argument?
a: Moderate coffee consumption will not stain teeth
b: Many purported ill-effects from moderate consumption of coffee are unfounded
c: Moderate consumption of coffee has health benefits while excessive consumption causes ill-effects, including teeth staining
d: People who drink coffee in excess are likely to have severe teeth staining
e: Consumed in moderation, coffee has no ill-effects
Many purported ill-effects from moderate consumption of coffee are unfounded
The Forestry Service has issued new warnings about forest fires, which hikers in the National Forest are encouraged to read thoroughly. The Forestry Service believes that more than two-thirds of forest fires last year were down to human error. Their hope is to seriously curtail the amount of fires for the coming year.
Which statement uses reasoning parallel to the reasoning used in the above statement?
a: A football coach instituting a new formation to gain an advantage on opponents
b: A non-profit organization providing relief to victims of natural disasters
c: A small business owner adding new pieces to his inventory to increase sales
d: A school having a class that teaches teenagers safer driving practices in order to lower the number of car wrecks
e: A company creating a training video to explain new procedures in their warehouses
A school having a class that teaches teenagers safer driving practices in order to lower the number of car wrecks
All the paintings of Vermeer are owned either by private individuals or by public museums. Among the paintings of Vermeer that are owned by private individuals, some are available for purchase and some are not. No painting of Vermeer that is owned by public museums is available for purchase. Therefore, the majority of paintings of Vermeer are not available for purchase.
Which one of the following is an assumption upon which the argument depends?
A: Most paintings of Vermeer that are not available for purchase are owned by private individuals.
B: The majority of the paintings of Vermeer that are owned by private individuals are available for purchase.
C: All paintings of Vermeer that are available for purchase are owned by private individuals.D: The total number of paintings of Vermeer that are owned by public museums is not less than total the number owned by private individuals.
E: No private individual owns more than one painting of Vermeer.
D: The total number of paintings of Vermeer that are owned by public museums is not less than total the number owned by private individuals.
Scholar: Journalists tend to be low-paid workers struggling to meet deadlines. Their editors tend to care less about the accuracy of the story and more about whether the story will sell. It follows that readers should be skeptical of the accuracy of most newspaper articles they read.
Each of the following helps strengthen the argument in the passage above EXCEPT:
A: Lower paid professions tend to attract less qualified people who do not have the necessary background to effectively research a complex issue.
B: Articles that are most popular with readers tend to be sensationalist and lack accuracy.
C: Many readers feel like they are not being given the whole story when they read newspaper articles.
D: Time pressure incentivizes journalists to cut corners and exclude certain facts they could not research in time.
E: Pressure from editors affects the way journalists produce their articles.
C: Many readers feel like they are not being given the whole story when they read newspaper articles.
We all have an obligation to do our part to protect nature. Only those who do are environmentally responsible. No people who insist on using incandescent light bulbs do their part to protect nature.
Which of the following conclusions follows:
a: People who insist on using incandescent light bulbs are not environmentally responsible
b: Incandescent light bulbs cause harm to nature
c: Environmentally responsible people have an obligation to discourage others from using incandescent light bulbs
d: All those who do not insist on using incandescent light bulbs are environmentally responsible
e: Incandescent light bulbs are only used by those who are environmentally irresponsible
People who insist on using incandescent light bulbs are not environmentally responsible
Everyone who thinks the Rams would win the championship thought that Jones would receive the award for Most Valuable Player. But Jones did not receive the award for Most Valuable Player. Therefore, anyone who believes the Rams will win the championship is wrong.
Which one of the following arguments contains flawed reasoning most similar to that in the argument above?
A: If you believe in fairies then you do not believe in vampires. Since Cindy believes in vampires, she cannot believe in fairies.
B: Anyone who believes animals deserve better treatment believes that animals are capable of moral judgment. You do not believe that animals deserve better treatment so you do not think they are capable of moral judgment.
C: Anyone who thinks that eating before exercising is a good idea has never taken a health class. But Jim has never taken a health class and knows that he should not eat before exercising. Therefore, taking a health class is not necessary for you to know eating before exercising is not a good idea.
D: Anyone who thinks chickens are ugly thinks ducks are ugly. Since there is no reason to think ducks are ugly there is no reason to think chickens are ugly.
E: Anyone that believes that seagulls migrate based on advanced spatial recognition patterns believes that most bird species have highly developed frontal cortexes. But is has been conclusively proven that most bird species do not have highly developed frontal cortexes. Thus, the belief that seagulls migrated based on advanced spatial recognition patterns is false.
E: Anyone that believes that seagulls migrate based on advanced spatial recognition patterns believes that most bird species have highly developed frontal cortexes. But is has been conclusively proven that most bird species do not have highly developed frontal cortexes. Thus, the belief that seagulls migrated based on advanced spatial recognition patterns is false.
Standard sheets of printer paper do not vary in the amount of wood pulp that they contain. Twenty-five percent of the wood pulp contained in a certain class of sheets of standard printer paper (Class B) was recycled from used sheets of standard printer paper of a different class (Class A). Since all Class A sheets were recycled into Class B sheets and since the amount of material other than wood pulp in a sheet of standard printer paper is negligible, it follows that Class B contains 4 times as many sheets of paper as Class A.
The conclusion of the argument follows logically if which one of the following is assumed?
A: All of the paper in Class A had been made from recycled wood pulp.
B: Class B sheets of paper cannot be recycled further.
Ç: The percentage of wood pulp in a sheet of standard printer paper that can be recovered during recycling varies depending on how much paper was used.
D: Unrecycled wood pulp is of better quality than recycled wood pulp.
E: When a sheet of standard printer paper is recycled, all of its wood pulp is recovered.
E: When a sheet of standard printer paper is recycled, all of its wood pulp is recovered.
The Democratic Party, despite being more popular than the Republicans in a recent national poll, will not retake the House of Representatives this upcoming election. This poll does not account for the fact that most incumbent Republicans poll much higher than the rest of their party, the Democratic Party does not have eligible candidates to challenge most seats, nor that recent changes in election laws give the better-funded Republican Party the opportunity to flood television with attack advertisements.
Which of the following, if true, most strengthens the argument made in the passage above?
A: The election is over twelve months away.
B: National polls tend to understate the Democratic Party's advantages.
C: Incumbents cannot fundraise as effectively when their party’s national reputation is under attack.
D: Many members of the Republican Party Caucus in the House of Representatives voted to cut social security benefits.
E: Attack advertisements do not disgust voters and therefore make them more likely to vote against the party that aired them.
E: Attack advertisements do not disgust voters and therefore make them more likely to vote against the party that aired them.
While there are certain dog-training techniques that generally tend to be effective for most dogs, it is important to keep in mind that each dog will respond particularly well to certain techniques that other dogs might not be receptive to. Therefore, the best practice is to keep general principles in mind when training dogs, while tailoring their educations to their particular traits.
Which of the following propositions does this reasoning above most closely conform to?
a: Unique individuals and unique circumstances call for specialized training to meet their needs.
b: It is dangerous to apply a broad set of principles to a set of unique individuals because they will react to the same set of circumstances differently.
c: While a general set of principles exist for accomplishing a goal, it is important to acknowledge the unique circumstances or qualities that may exist, and to take them into consideration.
d: Even though general principles are broad enough to encompass most individuals or circumstances, there will always be outliers that require special attention.
e: Although dogs are different, they are similar enough that a basic set of training principles can be applied to them universally, with slight room for variation.
c: While a general set of principles exist for accomplishing a goal, it is important to acknowledge the unique circumstances or qualities that may exist, and to take them into consideration.
It is important that each driver have an insurance policy before driving on the road. Otherwise, people may not be compensated when they are injured in car accidents. Everyone injured in accidents deserves to be compensated.
The argument assumes which of the following?
A: Those who are injured in accidents are never at fault for those accidents
B: If every driver is insured, every person injured in an accident will be compensated
C: No one who is in an accident but is uninjured deserves to be compensated
D: All car accidents result in injuries
E: Compensation always requires monetary payment
B: If every driver is insured, every person injured in an accident will be compensated
Even though Cindy tends to not lie, she decided that she would tell her friend Marvin that his performance went well, even though it had not, to cheer him up.
Which one of the following principles justifies Cindy’s behavior?
A: Telling a lie is never morally justified.
B: Telling a lie, as long as it is to a friend and for the purpose of cheering him or her up, is morally justified.
C: Telling a lie can only be morally justified if it is to a friend and for the purpose of preventing them from being harmed.
D: Telling a lie to a friend is morally justified under some circumstances as long as you eventually tell them the truth.
E: Telling a lie to a friend is never morally justified.
B: Telling a lie, as long as it is to a friend and for the purpose of cheering him or her up, is morally justified.
Economist: All hamburger joints must offer fries and drinks to maximize their revenue. The Burger Shack is a hamburger joint. Because it offers fries and drinks, its revenue is clearly being maximized.
The flawed reasoning in which one of the following is most similar to that in the economist’s argument?
a: Successful campaigning relies on two factors: powerful action committees and sufficient exposure. Sarah Strong was a congressional candidate in the last election. She must have had a powerful action committee and sufficient exposure, because she ran a successful campaign.
b: Every piano teacher needs to have a clear course of instruction and a patient personality to succeed. Beverly, a piano teacher, has both of these, so she is undoubtedly successful.
c: It will never snow unless the temperature is below 40 degrees and there is sufficient humidity. On Thursday there was sufficient humidity, but the temperature was 45 degrees, so it didn’t snow.
d: Every traffic jam is caused by two factors: impatient driving and lack of available roads. In the city of San Calistranus, there are plenty of available roads and few impatient drivers. So, clearly, there are few traffic jams in San Calistranus.
e: For a video game to sell well, it must include both a memorable character and lots of action. Arkham’s Revenge is a video game that has been selling well. Therefore, it must have a memorable character and lots of action.
Every piano teacher needs to have a clear course of instruction and a patient personality to succeed. Beverly, a piano teacher, has both of these, so she is undoubtedly successful.