Strategic Terrorism
From a rationalist perspective, why is terrorism puzzling?
Terrorism is costly and risky, actors have incentives to locate mutually preferred negotiated solutions, but nonetheless terrorism occurs.
Name three reasons that terrorists (rationally) use suicide terrorism as a tactic.
Simple, low-cost, guarantees mass casualties, no fear of detention, immense impact on public and media
This is the definition of the collective action problem of perpetrating terrorism.
Terrorism is individually costly (e.g. you could die), but successful terrorism benefits everyone (e.g. your whole ethnic group gets a new state)
This bias may lead the public to overestimate the relative risk from terrorism.
Availability bias.
This factor is very important to scholarly definitions of terrorism but not to the mass public.
Civilian targets
Private information and incentives to misrepresent.
Commitment problems caused when one or both parties has an incentive to renege
What considerations does a state face when dealing with suicide terrorism?
Sensitive to citizen casualties, constrained ability to retaliate, face reality of consequential, if weak otherwise, violent group
These are three levels in the pyramid model of radicalization.
Sympathizers, Supporters, Terrorists.
Both fear and anger are triggered by motive-inconsistent events. Fear has appraisal of low control potential (weakness), whereas anger is high control potential. Fear is circumstance or other caused, while anger is other-caused.
Attacks by Muslim perpetrators receive, on average, X57% more coverage than other attacks.
357%
Because it is hard for weak actors to make credible threats, they are forced to display publicly just how far they are willing to go to obtain their desired results. What is this a form of?
Costly signaling
Provocation is a strategy likened to this form of martial arts. (why?)
Jujitsu: using opponent's strength against them.
To assess the threat of terrorism, we need to consider the interaction of these two factors.
Motive and Capability
Avoidance/aversive versus approach/appetitive.
True or False: Terrorism always leads to citizens to adopt more right-wing political preferences.
False. Some studies have shown evidence of polarization rather than conservative shift. Others have shown null effects.
These are three things terrorists try to change beliefs about when they use terrorism strategically.
Why are "population-centric" or "hearts and minds" approaches to counterterrorism risky for states?
Harder to protect forces, more risk to soldiers.
Also acceptable: commitment problems when locals know government will eventually leave.
Name one individual, one group, and one mass pathway of radicalization.
Individual: personal victimization, political grievance, slippery slope, power of love
Group: extremity shift, cohesion under stress, competition for support, condensation, fissioning
Mass: jujitsu politics, hate, martyrdom
Which emotion is related to an attrition logic of terrorism and which emotion is related to a provocation logic?
Define the "file drawer" problem in political science research and its implications for what we know about public opinion and terrorism.
Significant results are more likely to be published than null results, making us think null effects are rarer than they actually are.
Attempting to change beliefs among one's own population about your opponent's trustworthiness is a strategy of ____.
Provocation.
David Lake defines extremists as having these two characteristics that make terrorism an appealing tactic.
Hold non-common political preferences and lack the ability to achieve those preferences.
In countering terrorist propaganda, states face tensions between these two competing ideals.
Freedom of speech versus preventing incitement to violence.
Why is it difficult to studying the causal effect of emotions in public opinion about terrorism? (two reasons)
Omitted variable bias: some other factor that causes both emotions and terrorism attitudes. (internal validity).
In experiments: external validity.
What is the difference between "statistical" and "taste-based" discrimination?
Statistical: individuals’ tendencies to stereotype based on differential base likelihoods of groups engaging in a given activity.
Taste-based: individuals have an intrinsic animus against individuals of other racial backgrounds that structures their behavior towards these groups, regardless of the base likelihood the outgroup member is a threat.