Risky Business
Prospect theory explains otherwise puzzling behavior in terms of humans feeling this X more keenly than this Y.
What are losses (X) and gains (Y)?
This is the scholar who literally write the book on groupthink.
Who is Irving Janis?
The is the term for the organization of beliefs related to the political arena.
What is operational code?
This is the level of analysis used when studying a leader's decision-making.
What is the individual level/1st level?
This is the full name of the current president of Turkey (pronunciation counts).
What is Recep Tayyip Erdoğan?
Frames shape how individuals assess their losses or gains based on this.
What is a reference point?
One symptom of groupthink can result from members' overestimation of this aspect of the group.
What is power/morality/superiority
Janice Gross Stein points to this form of learning in explaining Soviet Premier Gorbachev's belief shift on the Soviet security problem.
What is trial and error/motivated learning?
Conceptual complexity is linked to leaders' sophisticated use of these historical heuristics in FPDM.
What are analogies?
This is the event at which Erdoğan displayed high emotion in excoriating Israeli President Shimon Peres for Palestinian deaths before storming off stage
What is the 2009 Davos World Economic Forum?
This phenomenon, produced upon acquiring something, explains why humans would charge more to part with something than they would pay to purchase it.
What is the endowment effect?
These individuals protect the group's thinking from any discordant information/views.
Who are mindguards?
This FPDM leader type classification from Saunders describes a leader who, for example, thinks a communist authoritarian regime needs to be removed to make a state less threatening.
What is internally focused?
Research shows women leaders often perform this steely type of foreign policy role in order to attain elite Ingroup acceptance and be perceived as competent.
What is "iron lady"?
This is the suboptimal item that Hintz and Banks argue that Turkey cannot give up due to "symbolic amplification" by nationalist constituencies.
What is a Russian-made S-400 missile defense system?
Barbara Farnham uses prospect theory to explain President Roosevelt's decision to intervene in the Munich crisis by pointing to this shift.
What is an emotional frame shift (into Chamberlain's/Europe's Ingroup)
This individual resigned after being excluded (while on vacation) from Carter's decision on a hostage rescue operation in Iran.
Who is Sec of State Cyrus Vance?
Low conceptual complexity can produce "black and white" beliefs about the world, exhibited by this leader in the Falklands/Malvinas War.
Who is Margaret Thatcher?
Leaders who believe their opponent's defense-seeking measures stem from an inherently aggressive nature, rather than threatening circumstances, may suffer from this decision-making error.
What is the fundamental attribution error (FAE)?
Turkey's application to X organization was rejected in 1950 until Turkish troops contributed effectively to Y conflict
What are NATO and the Korean War?
Name one factor placing President Carter in the domain of losses and shaping his risky decision to authorize a hostage rescue operation.
What are loss of security for US citizens, loss of US reputation, dwindling numbers in polls, intra-party status decline?
As the case of George H. W. Bush and the Gulf War demonstrates, groupthink's fiasco-producing tendencies can be mitigated if the leader has this quality.
What is significant FP experience?
These are two of three mechanisms Jonathan Renshon points to in explaining how beliefs can change (George W. Bush case).
What are role change, learning, and exogenous shock?
Research shows that individuals who experience childhood war trauma are less likely to do this when serving as leaders.
What is initiate international conflict?
This is the number of times Prof. Hintz has referenced Turkey in class discussions this term.
What is NOT NEARLY ENOUGH?!!!!