ABC SPUR
In Prof. Hintz silly mnemonic for remembering the main assumptions of realism, this is the R
What is the rational actor assumption?
What is a cognitive heuristic?
The main subfield in which Heuristics and Biases insights were developed and applied.
What is behavioral economics?
This 1962 event is at the center of Allison's governmental or bureaucratic politics model
What is the Cuban Missile Crisis?
This is the scholar who literally wrote the book on groupthink.
Who is Irving Janis
This is the current president's full name. (Pronunciation counts!)
What is Recep Tayyip Erdoğan?
This is the B.
What is blackboxing?
The school of thought challenging "comprehensive rationality"
What is bounded rationality (or procedural rationality)?
The term for mental patterns of balance and simplicity that drive humans to discount discordant information.
What is cognitive consistency?
These are the regularized sets of procedures for producing particular classes of actions in BPM.
What are action channels?
Overestimation of the group, one symptom of groupthink, can stem from beliefs about this aspect of the group.
What is power, morality, superiority?
The international event at which then-PM Erdoğan excoriated Israeli President Shimon Peres for Palestinian deaths before storming off stage and declaring Turkey done with the event.
What was the 2009 Davos World Economic Forum?
This is the A.
What is anarchy?
The individual credited with developing the school of bounded rationality.
Who is Herbert Simon?
The form of systematic error in decision-making produced by ego defense.
What is motivated/motivational bias?
According to BPM, where you sit in government should determine this.
What is where you stand on an issue/the stance you take on a decision.
These individuals, who protect the group's line of thinking from discordant information, can emerge throughout the decision-making process.
What are mindguards?
The Russian missile defense system Turkey purchased, and the joint strike fighter program it was excluded from for doing so.
What are the S-400 and the F-35?
This is the P.
What is power?
The term for the revising of beliefs/utility calculations that Bounded Rationality demonstrates individuals do NOT always engage in.
What is Bayesian updating?
This bias leads decision-makers to believe that aggressive behavior comes from another leader's nature, rather than from circumstances.
What is the Fundamental Attribution Error?
In the case of President Obama's decision on a troop surge in Afghanistan, this individual (name and position) deviated from the expectations of BPM.
Who is Secretary of State Hilary Clinton?
This individual (name and position) resigned after the decision to launch an operation to rescue hostages in Iran was made, crucially, while he was on vacation.
Who is Secretary of State Cyrus Vance?
The Gaza-bound flotilla whose 2010 killing of nine Turkish activists by Israeli forces prompted a break in Turkish-Israeli diplomatic relations.
What is the Mavi Marmara?
Name any actor the "S" assumption excludes
What are non-state actors (IOs, INGOs, MNCs, terrorist groups)
The name for Gigerenzer and Goldstein's model of limited decision-making based on cues.
What is Take the Best (or Fast and Frugal)?
This bias is produced because individuals tend to see and seek patterns where they don't exist.
What is the representativeness bias?
Concerns about a missile gap during this election shaped the decision to deploy, bizarrely, a Chinese-oriented ABM system.
What is the 1968 presidential election (Humphrey vs Nixon)?
As the case of President George H. W. Bush demonstrates, the fiasco-inducing dynamics of groupthink can be countered if the leader has this quality.
What is experience in FP?
The number of times Prof. Hintz has referenced Turkey in class discussions this term.