Reason Like a Logician
This type of reasoning begins with assumed true premises and uses logic to evaluate conclusions.
What is deductive reasoning?
This heuristic judges probability based on how similar something is to the category it seems to represent.
What is the representativeness heuristic?
The tendency to believe you "knew it all along" after something happens.
What is hindsight bias?
"If today is Tuesday, then I have class. Today is Tuesday. Therefore, I have class." This valid reasoning structure has a name.
What is affirming the antecedent?
This heuristic explains why we think shark attacks are more common right after seeing one in the news.
What is the availability heuristic?
The planning fallacy leads people to underestimate this about their own projects.
What is the time (or resources) it will take to complete them?
This logical fallacy occurs when someone concludes "If A then B. B is true, so A must be true."
What is affirming the consequent?
The error of judging the probability of two events happening together as more likely than one alone.
What is the conjunction fallacy?
This theory explains how people frame gains and losses differently when making decisions.
What is prospect theory?
The Wason Selection Task is used to test for this common cognitive bias.
What is confirmation bias?
You’re told a number, then use it as a starting point for your guess—even if it's irrelevant.
What is the anchoring and adjustment heuristic?
When people are more confident in their beliefs than they should be, they’re displaying this.
What is overconfidence?
The belief that a conclusion must be true because it aligns with your real-world knowledge, not logic.
What is the belief-bias effect?
This heuristic is used when we choose something simply because we recognize its name.
What is the recognition heuristic?
People who obsess over finding the best option—even when a good one would do—are called this.
What are maximizers?