MCMC
Likelihood Ratios
Number of Contributors
Mass Parameters
Diagnostics
100
Accepted 100% of the time.
What is a hot guess?
100
LR >1
What is support for Hp (H1)?
100
Maximum number of observed alleles at a locus rounded up to nearest even number divided by two.
What is the minimum number of contributors?
100
Three main factors that dictate total allelic product.
What is template, degradation, and locus specific amplification efficiency?
100
Evaluation of STRmix results must always be done for this in the context of the profile itself and likely genotypes of major/minor contributors.
What is intuitiveness?
200
An algorithm based on standard mathematical principles that assigns a likelihood tor each genotype combination.
What is Markov chain Monte Carlo?
200
What is Bayes Theorem?
200
May lead to false exclusions of true contributors.
What is underestimating the NOC?
200
Mass parameter that increases with molecular weight.
What is degradation?
200
Weights, mixture proportions, and LRs.
What are primary diagnostics?
300
A proposed genotype combination.
What is an iteration?
300
What is the Likelihood Ratio?
300
May produce weak support for inclusion for non-contributors.
What is overestimating the NOC?
300
Mass parameters that are contributor specific.
What are degradation and template?
300
A negative value suggests that STRmix has not been able to describe the data very well.
What is the log(likelihood)?
400
50,000
What is the default number of accepts per chain?
400
Probability of observing the profile if H1 is true divided by the probaility of observing the profile if H2 is true.
What it the Likelihood Ratio?
400
Has a larger impact on trace contributors than on major contributors.
What is the mis-assignment of N?
400
Total allelic product subtracting the height due to back and forward stutter.
What is the expected height of an allele?
400
GR > 1.2
Chains have not converged. The variation between the chains is likely to be larger than the variation with the chains.
500
p1 / p0
What is the chance of accepting a cold guess?
500
The probability of someone other than the suspect being the souce of the DNA is...
What is the Prosecuter's Fallacy?
500
For an evidential sample this is always unknown and unknowable.
What is true N?
500
Slope x allele designation + intercept (where slope and intercept are derived from empirical studies)
What is stutter ratio?
500
Centered around the mode and modeled by a gamma distribution based on laboratory data.
What is allele and stutter variance?