Polling Basics
This president was the first to poll Americans
Who is Theodore Roosevelt?
Fiorina's theory of party ID as a "running tally"
What is the idea that people will vote a certain way after being given repeated reasons to do so?
Winner of the 1988 Presidential Election
George H.W. Bush
The difference between polarization and sorting
What is more extreme opinions vs more consistent ones?
This is the term for analyzing a subset of a population in order to study the opinions of the group in general.
What is sampling?
The view that Converse (1964) expressed on public opinion after viewing how inconsistent people were in their responses.
What is the idea that people don't really have meaningful opinions?
Instances since 1988 in which the Republican has won the popular presidential vote.
What are 2004 and 2024?
An example we've studied in class of partisans changing their opinions to match that of their party.
What are (some examples)
Republicans on China during Nixon
Republicans on USSR during Reagan
Democrats having higher estimates of casualty counts in Iraq
Term for the type of error that results from our respondents not being representative of the larger population.
What is sampling error?
The factor that Zaller and Feldman say determines which of people's many conflicting beliefs they express when asked
What is accesibility?
Reason that Gelman and King give for why presidential elections are so predictable.
What is "because the fundamentals of American society (economy, presidential approval, etc.) are highly predictive of the presidential vote.
Between sorting and polarization, the one we have more evidence for
What is sorting?
Term for the bias that emerges when a specific subset of people you want to poll are less likely to participate.
More politically informed individuals are more/less likely to reach false conclusions based on partisan reasoning?
Purpose that Gelman and King give for why campaigns exist.
Decade in which the modern partisan divide of conservative Republicans and liberal Democrats first began to emerge
What is the 1960s?
These are the 5 models presented by Luttbeg (1968) through which he claims public opinion can be reflected in policy. (Name at least 3)
What is the:
Rational-Activist Model
Political Parties Model
Interest Groups Model
Delegate Model
Sharing Model
?
The two different ways that individuals process information which shape the way that their political opinions are formed (name and define)
What are:
Online processing
memory based processing
Online means they can immediately recover their own opinion when asked, updated when new information encountered. Memory based is when they consult their memory for relevant considerations.
In the example he studies, Lupia finds that knowing what makes generally uninformed people vote the same as knowledgeable ones?
What is the preference of the insurance industry?
Researchers have classified individuals into four main types based on their use of ideological language in their answers.
Name and describe 2 of the 4 types.
Ideologues
Group Benefits
Nature of the times
No issue content